Patriots vs. Bears prediction, odds, time: 'Thursday Night Football' picks by proven model

Teams in the thick of their respective division races clash when the New England Patriots meet the Chicago Bears on 'Thursday Night Football.' New England is coming off a 26-19 win over the New York Jets, while Chicago downed the Atlanta Falcons 31-23 on Sunday. The Patriots (4-2), who are second in the AFC East, are 1-2 on the road this season. The Bears (4-2), who are tied with the Green Bay Packers for second in the NFC North, are 2-1 on their home field. New England leads the all-time series 11-5, including wins in six of the last seven meetings.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Soldier Field in Chicago. The latest Patriots vs. Bears odds have Chicago as 3-point favorites. The over/under for total points scored is 50.5. Before making any Bears vs. Patriots picks, be sure to see the 'Thursday Night Football' predictions' from SportsLine's proven model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $5,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 7 of the 2026 NFL season on a 58-48 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has zoned in on Patriots vs. Bears. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Bears vs. Patriots:

Top Patriots vs. Bears predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Patriots vs. Bears, the model is going Under 50.5 points at betting apps. The Under hit in the last meeting between the teams, a 19-3 New England win in 2024. The Under has also hit in five of the last eight Patriots games, and in four of the last five Bears games.

Quarterback Drake Maye has struggled at times this season and the Patriots are averaging 22.7 points per game, tied for 18th-best in the league. Defensively, however, New England has allowed the fifth-fewest points on the season with 18.6. Chicago has also played solid defense, allowing 19.8 points, sixth-best. Bears quarterback Caleb Williams has been hampered with a hamstring injury and has missed three games. He has thrown for 712 yards and three touchdowns with one interception.

The model projects 44 combined points as the Under hits 66% of the time. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make 'Thursday Night Football' picks

In addition to going Under, the model also says one side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time. See what it is at SportsLine.