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Back植田和男G20後轉鷹派 促日圓大漲 日本資產長期投資風險提高
植田和男G20後轉鷹派 促日圓大漲 日本資產長期投資風險提高
Developing
自由时报37 minutes agoBusiness2 min readChinaView translation

植田和男G20後轉鷹派 促日圓大漲 日本資產長期投資風險提高

植田和男日本銀行BOJ

Quick Look

日本銀行總裁植田和男在G20財長與央行總裁會議後表示升息態度更為開放，市場解讀為轉鷹派，導致日圓大漲。文章指出BOJ歷史上曾在關鍵時刻犯下錯誤決策，若現在過度憂慮通膨採取激進貨幣政策，可能重演歷史失誤，增加日本資產長期投資風險。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

日本銀行過去曾在關鍵經濟轉折點犯下政策錯誤，如1990年代房地產泡沫後降息緩慢、2006年脫離通縮時過早升息。植田和男在G20會議後表示升息態度開放，被市場解讀為轉鷹派。

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■陳泓睿

近日，日本銀行（BOJ）總裁植田和男在美國參加20國集團（G20）財長與中央銀行總裁會議後，在記者會提到升息時表示，「包含下次的金融政策決定會議在內，盼藉每次會議充分討論」。這在對升息的態度上跟過去相比更為開放，市場解讀是轉鷹派的表態，此發言一出日圓大漲，從現在開始日本資產的長期投資風險正在提高。

資料來源:︰財經M平方

植田和男G20後轉「鷹」促日圓大漲

主因在於BOJ過往的貨幣決策歷史經常在緊要關頭做出歷史性的錯誤決策，諸如:1990年代房地產泡沫破裂後降息緩慢、2006年在經濟剛開始有脫離通縮泥淖時便升息2碼並縮減資產負債表規模等，筆者認為BOJ升息到現在1%的基準利率並緩步的縮表尚算恰當，但如果現在開始又過度憂慮通膨而出現更激進的貨幣政策（如:BOJ鷹派審議委員高田創近日便直言下次升息幅度「未必是0.25個百分點」，未來也不應維持每半年升息一次的固定節奏），恐將重演當年當下看似正確，但事後回顧歷史卻令人震驚的決策歷史，這會給投資市場帶來長期不穩定的風險。

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日央QT加碼升息預期 日股長期價格風險恐大增

除此以外，日本央行本來縮表的行動就還沒縮手，不論資產負債表的規模或是佔GDP的比重都已經降回2020年的水準；如果日圓從2012年開始急貶是靠BOJ瘋狂QE印鈔所帶動，那在BOJ已經將資產負債表的規模推回2020年春天水準的現在，日圓匯率卻仍遠低於當年（2020年春天美元兌日圓匯率大概在107左右）再加上BOJ表態轉鷹，日圓匯率存在升值空間，若是如此根據過去經驗日股長期投資的價格風險會提高，投資人不論是現在才要開始投資亦或是之前已經投資帳上已經有獲利的部位，接下來千萬必須慎重再慎重。

（作者為永豐金證券財管經營部資深策略分析師）

一手掌握經濟脈動 點我訂閱自由財經Youtube頻道

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • BOJ將在未來幾次會議中討論升息幅度與節奏，可能 deviate from fixed 半年一次模式

    Possible · Within months

Open Questions

  • BOJ未來是否會維持每半年升息一次的固定節奏？
  • 日圓升值是否會顯著影響日本出口競爭力？
  • 日本股市長期投資者應如何調整部位以應對匯率波動？

Related Topics

植田和男
People陳泓睿高田創
Organizations日本銀行永豐金證券財管經營部
Places日本美國
Topics日本銀行BOJ升息鷹派日圓資產負債表縮減
This article was originally published by 自由时报.

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