Frankfurt. Anthropic, the first major AI start-up, could go public this year. The US company, best known for the Claude model, submitted its long-awaited prospectus at the end of October. A similarly high valuation is expected for the initial public offering (IPO) as that of the space company SpaceX in June - at that time almost 1.8 trillion dollars.
Investors can invest indirectly in Anthropic in advance or bet on the success of the IPO. Handelsblatt presents three options – and explains their limitations.
Investors in Germany generally cannot easily buy the shares of privately held companies. According to Anthropic, shares may only be sold with the company's consent. Direct entry for investors is otherwise only possible with the IPO. If you still want to bet on Anthropic shares in advance, you can check indirect options.
One option is shares in publicly traded companies that have a stake in Anthropic. These include two large tech companies: Amazon and Google parent company Alphabet.
Amazon and Google have each invested several billion dollars in Anthropic in recent years. According to calculations by the financial service Bloomberg, Amazon recently held an economic stake of around nine percent in the AI company. There are also other instruments that can be converted into shares. Bloomberg currently estimates Google's share at at least seven percent.
Such investments have recently had a noticeable impact on the profits of the two tech companies. Smaller minority investments in non-listed companies are accounted for in the latest financing round in the USA.
If Anthropic's valuation increases with the IPO and in subsequent stock market trading, this would also increase the value of Amazon and Google's holdings. The company's shares are easy for investors to trade on the stock exchange.
Stephan Kemper, investment strategist at asset manager BNP Paribas Wealth Management, still does not consider the shares of Amazon and Alphabet to be suitable for betting on Anthropic. In relation to the market value of the two tech companies, the remaining IPO valuation effect “almost completely disappears in the daily market noise,” says Kemper. Amazon currently has a market capitalization of $2.6 trillion, while Alphabet has a market capitalization of $3.4 trillion.
According to Kemper, smaller early investors could benefit more from an appreciation of their Anthropic stake. He names the South Korean mobile operator SK Telecom and the US software company Zoom. Both companies invested in Anthropic early on and now hold investments worth billions, but are not as valuable themselves as Amazon and Alphabet.
Even in these cases, the core operational business is likely to continue to be the driving factor for the price development, explains Kemper. In addition, experience shows that such passive share packages would be valued at a discount on the stock exchange. Kemper's conclusion: "As a pure speculation on the one-off jump in valuation during an IPO, the detour via major shareholders is therefore unlikely to be successful for private investors."
A second option to invest indirectly in Anthropic is private market funds. One example is the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (ISIN: GB00BLDYK618) from fund manager Baillie Gifford. The approximately 19 billion pounds (22 billion euros) trust also invests in private companies. The fund shares themselves are traded on the stock exchange. According to the company, the fund may be sold in Germany to professional investors with sufficient experience and budget.
Anthropic had a portfolio share of four percent in the trust at the end of September. This means that the weight of the start-up is rather small.
The New York-listed investment company Destiny Tech100 (ISIN: US25063F1075) has a larger share of the portfolio. According to the company, Anthropic was the largest portfolio position in the closed-end fund at the end of June, with a share of 14 percent.
However, according to the company, the Anthropic position was acquired through a special purpose vehicle (SPV). According to its own information, Anthropic views share transactions in SPVs as fundamentally void and refers to its own transfer restrictions. What this means for the portfolio position is unclear. Destiny Tech100 did not initially respond to a Handelsblatt request.
The stock market prices of such vehicles can also fluctuate greatly and deviate significantly from the actual value of the portfolio. According to the Morningstar analysis platform, the shares of the Baillie Gifford Trust are currently trading at a discount of eight percent to the net portfolio value.
Investors from Germany can also look at so-called European Long-Term Investment Funds, or Eltifs for short. These are long-term funds that are intended to give small investors access to investments outside of the stock market.
According to the company, Blackrock's private equity Eltif, which can be traded at neobroker Scalable Capital, is invested in Anthropic, for example. However, shares can only be subscribed on monthly deadlines and therefore possibly only after the Anthropic IPO.
However, please note: Eltifs are designed for investors who want to invest for several years. In addition, private market funds often incur high management fees.
A third option is so-called perpetual futures (Perps) and products based on these instruments. With the “21shares Anthropic Synthetic ETP” (ISIN: CH1606386675), investors have been able to bet on the Anthropic IPO since the beginning of October. This is an exchange-traded product (ETP) that is intended to reflect the valuation of Anthropic priced in by the market before the initial listing.
Perpetual futures are derivatives that allow investors to speculate on the price development of an asset. Unlike futures contracts, they have no expiration date and the associated asset, such as stocks, oil or Bitcoin, never actually changes hands. To ensure that the price of a Perp does not deviate from the actual market price, there is a reference value and compensation payments in the event of deviations.
With the ETP, Anthropic shares never actually appear in the portfolio. Crypto transaction data is used before the IPO for the reference value of the Perps used. After the IPO, the stock market price should be used for this. Anthropic Perps are also traded on the Hyperliquid crypto platform.
Perps are complex, high risk and controversial. The Perps market is small and the price can deviate significantly from the later issue price, warns the ExtraETF platform with regard to the new ETP. There is also a counterparty risk - i.e. a risk that the issuer of the derivatives used defaults. By the end of October, the Anthropic ETP had lost 18 percent of its value.
