BERLIN — German Chancellor Friedrich Merz moved to reassure allies in Europe and Kyiv that his domestic political weakness would not erode his government’s support for Ukraine as the war nears its fifth winter.
The chancellor also sought to convince an increasingly wavering German electorate that it is in their direct interest for Berlin to provide military support for Ukraine — warning that failure to remain united behind Kyiv could one day invite a Russian military attack on Germany.
“If we fail to rein in Moscow, the Russian war machine will, sooner or later, turn against us and against NATO,” Merz said during a speech at a ceremony in the western German city of Münster, where the alliance was awarded the Westphalian Peace Prize. “We must not turn a blind eye to this danger. Three generations after 1945, war would return to our part of Europe.”
Merz went on to warn of the danger of conflict in Europe with some of his most dramatic language yet.
“Would the Baltic states then become a battlefield for drone warfare, just as Donbas is today?” he said. “Which major European cities would be targeted by the ballistic missiles that Russia is currently firing at the populations of Kyiv and Kharkiv?”
“Would we Germans ultimately be targeted as well? Would we once again experience the horrors of war firsthand? Ladies and gentlemen, our most urgent European and transatlantic responsibility today is to do everything in our power to avert this.”
Merz’s comments came weeks after the far-right Alternative for Germany party recorded its best-ever election results, coming in first in two regional votes in the former East Germany, while the chancellor’s conservative Christian Democratic Union suffered historic defeats. The conservatives’ poor results were widely blamed on the deeply unpopular chancellor, prompting internal debate within his own party over whether to replace him.
The surge in popularity for the Kremlin-friendly AfD sparked concerns in Kyiv and across Europe that Germany — which under Merz has become Ukraine’s greatest military supporter — could falter in its support for Ukraine. The AfD — a party that favors ending military support for Ukraine and re-establishing economic and energy ties with Moscow — is the most popular party in the country, according to surveys, polling well above Merz’s conservatives.
Merz on Thursday took aim at the AfD, portraying the party as a conduit for Moscow’s influence and vowing that his government would continue to support Ukraine despite hybrid attacks and disinformation campaigns “orchestrated from Moscow” and spread through “the slogans of the AfD and its Russian backers.”
At the event in Münster, Hendrik Wüst — the premier of North Rhine-Westphalia and the conservative politician often held up as a possible replacement for Merz — praised the chancellor’s leadership in what appeared to be an effort to project unity and quell talk of a so-called “chancellor swap.”
“Chancellor Friedrich Merz assumed a pivotal role in NATO during a critical phase,” Wüst said ahead of Merz’s speech, commending the chancellor's “clear commitment” to NATO’s 5% defense spending target. “While others hesitated, the German chancellor stayed the course, thereby providing stability to the alliance,” he went on, adding: “Thanks to you, dear Friedrich, it is clear that Germany is making a strong contribution to peace and freedom.”
While Merz and Wüst sought to project stability and resolve to an international audience, many of the chancellor’s remarks aimed to convince an increasingly wavering German electorate to stay the course on military support for Ukraine.
Many Germans continue to express worry about a potential Russian attack on NATO territory. According to a recent survey for German public television, 42% of respondents said military support for Ukraine goes too far — the highest proportion yet. Opposition to military support for Ukraine is particularly prevalent in the former East Germany, where the AfD is strongest.
“Ukraine must get through this winter, and I am convinced it will. It can count on our help,” Merz said.
“If we falter in Germany, then Europe falters,” he added. “If we remain steadfast, then Europe will remain steadfast.”
