The practical impact of Germany's latest measures against Russia may be limited, according to Russian political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin, who described the response as largely symbolic.
However, Berlin's decision to publicly attribute the attempted drone attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport on August 4 to Moscow reflects a growing willingness to respond to Russian President Vladimir Putin and what Berlin sees as hostile actions on its territory.
"It's only a source of joy for Putin. After all, he is restoring this Iron Curtain between Russia and all the other countries. And now he's getting help from the other side as well," Oreshkin told DW. "Putin is someone who cannot be stopped by anything other than escalation and tough restrictions."
Berlin's decision to close the Russian consulate in the western city of Bonn, terminate the contract for the Russian House cultural center in Berlin and tighten entry controls for Russian citizens does not go far enough, according to Boris Bondarev, a former diplomat who worked for the Russian permanent mission to the UN Office at Geneva.
Bondarev, who resigned his post in 2022 over Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, said reducing staff and restricting diplomatic activities may complicate Russian operations in Germany, but they will not fundamentally alter Moscow's strategic calculus.
"I'm not sure this will be perceived in Russia as something that will make them think twice," he said. "Unless there are other, more coordinated steps at the EU level, they won't stop provocations. At most, they may force them to coordinate a little differently and look for more professional operatives."
Both experts agreed, however, that Germany's measures could have an effect even if they fail to deter Moscow — by setting off another cycle of reciprocal restrictions.
How will Russia respond?
Speaking on Tuesday, President Putin called Germany's response "another mistake, a serious one," with the Kremlin telling the German Press Agency that Russia would respond "in kind."
German security policy expert Wolfgang Richter said the risk of escalation has increased compared with the early years of the Russia-Ukraine war, but said the next phase of confrontation between Berlin and Moscow is likely to remain in the areas of diplomacy and culture.
"They will, for example, close the Goethe-Institut," said Richter, a colonel with Germany's military until his retirement in 2010. "I would not quite exclude that they could also escalate a little bit and do more — for example, limit the number of diplomats in the German embassy in Moscow."
Former diplomat Bondarev, however, said the Kremlin's reaction could be difficult to predict.
"Moscow officials can surprise you. They could say: 'We have all these people under surveillance anyway, so why expel them? Let them work, and we'll continue monitoring them.' It could go either way. But most likely, there will be some high-profile retaliatory steps," he said.
The dispute over organizations such as the Goethe-Institut and the Russian House in Berlin reflects a deeper divide in how Moscow and Western governments view their role. The Goethe-Institut, founded in 1951 to promote German language and culture abroad, is seen by Moscow through the lens of its broader suspicion of Western institutions, said Oreshkin. And, he added, the Kremlin tends to assume that such organizations serve intelligence purposes because it projects its own security-service worldview onto Western structures.
"The Russian system of thinking among the security services assumes that all Western institutions are organized in exactly the same way. This symmetrical picture of the world is deeply mistaken," he said.
Oreshkin said it's unlikely the Kremlin will escalate much further than the level of diplomacy and culture.
"Launching a missile strike — that's something Putin doesn't have the guts to do. And all these acts of sabotage and subversion — supporting alternative political movements, like Alternative for Germany — they're already doing that anyway," he said. "So I don't think Putin can escalate much beyond that. He can, in fact, escalate the rhetoric, and that's what he's doing."
Real pressure point: Russia's shadow fleet
Announcing the measures on Monday, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul told reporters that the EU would continue to work on additional sanctions "in the coming weeks." That included tougher action against Russia's "shadow fleet," though he didn't provide further details.
Russian officials have repeatedly warned that attempts to detain or seize vessels linked to Russia's network of ships accused of circumventing fuel sanctions would be regarded as hostile acts.
Oreshkin said if Europe really wants to put pressure on the Kremlin, targeting the financial flows behind the shadow fleet would be more effective. But he pointed to a major obstacle: European governments are constrained by their own legal frameworks, which include maritime law that ensure freedom of navigation.
Security expert Richter, however, sees a broader security risk. Pressure on the shadow fleet could increase the likelihood of incidents at sea, he told DW. "And that would, of course, mean another escalation."
For Richter, the answer lies in making sure both sides understand the risks involved. "The situation has become more tense and it's high time to speak," he said. Without communication between the parties, he warned, any actions could be misinterpreted and might trigger further escalation.
Edited by: Martin Kuebler
