Government grappling with the renewal of diesel discounts amidst inflationary pressures and political difficulties

Oil prices, which have returned to around 100 dollars a barrel, are pushing for the activation of new government brakes on the price of fuel. But the difficulties in finding a majority agreement on the subjects to whom tailor-made support should be directed require additional time to build the architecture of "targeted aid". At this crossroads, yet another extension of the general cut in excise duties on diesel is making its way, even if Palazzo Chigi would prefer to avoid another bridge intervention and move quickly to the new phase. But tomorrow a new decree must be approved, because dropping the discounts, which expire tomorrow at midnight after the latest inter-ministerial decree with mobile excise duties, would bring diesel to a peak of 2.34 euros per litre. And the absence of new measures would expose the government and the majority to attacks on the very delicate terrain of the battle against inflation.

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The system that took shape in yesterday's meetings was born from these premises. The idea is once again that of a three-stage process, which passes from a new extension of a fortnight of the discount on diesel to then lead to a quarterly selective aid mechanism with which to cover October, November and December. The maneuver should then be considered in 2027, also in light of the evolution of the situation. However, numbers, calendar and strategies are still in flux, linked to more than one variable.

Those of a practical nature are naturally imposed by public accounts. The series of excise duty cuts, which started on March 18 and has so far been divided into 14 episodes divided in half between legislative decrees and interministerial decrees financed by the VAT extra revenue, has already cost 2.075 billion, to which must be added 537.6 million for tax credits for road transport, agriculture and fishing. Total: 2.613 billion.

Another 15-day epilogue would ask for coverage for around 180 million, a significant part of which would also be earmarked for the benefit of those who could do without state aid because they do not belong to the lowest income brackets.

This is also why the Government would gladly do without this move, to immediately move on to the "targeted measures" announced by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni last Friday while celebrating the record duration of the Executive in Bari. The goal, however, does not seem within reach at the moment. For the acceleration, political as well as technical, that it would need.