Big parties almost on a par: Election thriller in New Zealand: Small party as kingmaker?

Wellington. New Zealand is facing a difficult task of forming a government: in the parliamentary elections, the conservative National Party of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and the social democratic Labor Party of challenger Chris Hipkins fought head-to-head. After more than 90 percent of the votes were counted, the two major parties in the Pacific state were almost tied, each with around 29 percent of the votes.

The smaller parties are therefore likely to play a decisive role. Particular attention is being paid to the up-and-coming Opportunity Party: at 5.9 percent, it is above the five percent threshold and is therefore likely to enter parliament for the first time. With probably several seats, it could become the decisive partner in forming a government.

Prime Minister Luxon (56) had previously ruled out working with Opportunity. The main reason is the party's tax policy, which calls for a new land tax and an unconditional basic income - both of which the conservative head of government rejects. Opportunity boss Qiulae Wong, on the other hand, is sticking to her offer to negotiate with both political camps.

The 38-year-old Wong is a political newcomer. In 2025, the former management consultant and sustainability expert came across a job advertisement from the Opportunity Party, which was looking for a new chairwoman. She applied - and within a year managed to rise from a largely unknown politician to a possible kingmaker.

Around 3.8 million people were called to vote. The population of the Pacific state is primarily concerned with the tense economic situation with high costs of living, inflation and rising unemployment. Luxon's government is therefore under pressure. Possible relief for households dominated the election campaign.

Hundreds of thousands of so-called special votes will also be counted in the coming weeks. This includes, among other things, votes from New Zealanders abroad and from voters who voted outside their actual constituency. The final result is expected on November 27th. The subsequent counting could significantly shift the balance of power.

Another peculiarity of New Zealand's electoral system could also mean that Parliament will be larger than usual. Normally it has 120 seats. However, so-called overhang mandates are possible in this election: If a party wins more direct mandates in the constituencies than it is entitled to based on its nationwide vote share, it can keep these additional seats.

Luxon's National Party has led a coalition with the right-wing liberal ACT Party and the populist New Zealand First since 2023 and is hoping for a second term in office for the conservative head of government. At the last election he also ran against Labor leader Hipkins (48). Hipkins was Prime Minister for several months in 2023 after Jacinda Ardern resigned. A return to power is not out of the question - but weeks of negotiations over a new coalition could lie ahead. Hipkins told supporters: "New Zealand has spoken tonight. But it may take us a little longer to understand exactly what they said."