Grand Parliament: New Zealand faces weeks of power play after election

Wellington. New Zealand will have an unusually large parliament after the election - and possibly a long period of political uncertainty. Instead of the usual 120 seats, 131 mandates are now planned according to the preliminary count. This would be the largest representation of the people since the proportional representation system was introduced in 1996.

It has not yet been decided who will govern in the future: almost 400,000 special votes still have to be counted. The official result is not expected until November 27th.

According to the counting of votes from election day, the conservative National Party of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and the social democratic Labor Party of editor Chris Hipkins are almost tied at around 29 percent each. Hundreds of thousands of so-called special votes – which make up 14 percent of all votes – could significantly shift the balance of power.

This includes, among other things, votes from New Zealanders abroad and from voters who voted outside their actual constituency. In the past, they often benefited predominantly left-wing parties.

The larger parliament is a result of so-called overhang mandates. In the Pacific country, citizens vote for a party and a candidate in their constituency. If a party wins more constituencies than it is entitled to based on the national vote share, it is allowed to keep the additional seats. This time the parliament will grow by eleven to 131 seats. For a majority, 66 instead of the usual 61 seats are needed.

The smaller parties, particularly the emerging Opportunity Party, are likely to play a crucial role in forming a government. The party led by its leader Qiulae Wong made it into parliament for the first time with almost six percent and is expected to receive seven seats. Luxon initially ruled out working with her because of her tax plans. Wong, on the other hand, is keeping talks open with both political camps.

Whether this will be necessary remains to be seen: So far, the National Party has 42 seats, Labor has 36. Together with its previous coalition partners ACT and New Zealand First, Luxon would have 67 seats - just one more than necessary for a majority.

The head of government was optimistic: “As things stand, we don’t need Opportunity to form a government,” he said. Things could get more complicated for Labor: “A victory for the left in this election is not impossible, but it looks very difficult,” commented the New Zealand Herald.

However, even a few direct mandates changed by special votes could endanger the narrow majority of Luxon's camp and also influence the size of parliament again. The current government will therefore remain in office until the official result at the end of November. The coalition negotiations are only likely to gain momentum afterwards.

Meanwhile, the population continues to suffer from high living costs, inflation and rising unemployment. The voter turnout therefore gives cause for thought: According to preliminary calculations, 74.6 percent of registered voters went to the polls. In 2023 it was 78.2 percent. The two major parties, National and Labor, together only get around 58.6 percent of the vote - a historic low.