Guardians vs. Rays ALCS Game 1 picks Monday: Tampa Bay appears to have nearly every advantage in series opener

The Cleveland Guardians haven't won the World Series since 1948, which is the longest drought in MLB. The Tampa Bay Rays have never won one, losing in the Fall Classic in 2008 and 2020. The team that moves on from the ALCS -- which starts Monday in St. Petersburg -- will have a chance to change that. Monday's Game 1 will be the third all-time Guardians vs. Rays postseason matchup – and the series winner will be an underdog in the World Series against either the Dodgers or Brewers. Tampa Bay is a -169 favorite in the Guardians vs. Rays odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Over/Under for runs is 6.5. Bet $5+ on any of today's MLB games to get $200 in bonus bets at DraftKings Sportsbook:

It's an 8 p.m. ET start at Tropicana Field, and if there's one good thing we can say about the Trop it's that we don't have to worry about weather. At -169 via DraftKings, Tampa Bay is taking 54% of handle and 93% of wagers. There is split action on the total of 6.5. On the series line, the Rays are -165 and Guardians +135 and I favor Tampa Bay in probably six. That happens to be the +370 exact result favorite.

Fans can try MLB betting on the best sports betting apps and get bonuses. The SportsLine Projection Model also has picks on games like Guardians-Rays from its 10,000 simulations, and our experts also offer insights on games every day.

Guardians vs. Rays MLB same-game parlay

Tampa Bay money line

Race to seven runs: Neither

FanDuel: SGP price: +107 (subject to change)

One really interesting storyline here is what could have been for the Guardians. Every team in the major leagues has made numerous bad trades in their history, but boy did Cleveland get robbed, as it turned out, in November 2021 when it traded 18-year-old prospect Junior Caminero to Tampa Bay for mediocre reliever Tobias Myers. He was a scrub for the Mets this year while Caminero is a rising superstar who looks like a future AL MVP after finishing second in the AL with 42 homers in the regular season. The Guardians' regular-season leader was Angel Martinez with only 18 bombs.

The Rays were 5-1 in the season series (3-0 at home) but three of the six were decided by a run, including two 1-0 Tampa Bay wins. Caminero was pretty quiet in batting .182 with no homers and two RBI. They have split their two playoff meetings, with Tampa Bay taking the 2013 AL Wild-Card Game and Cleveland winning the 2022 AL WC Series in a two-game sweep.

Tampa Bay, which has been off since sweeping the Yankees last Wednesday, will start Drew Rasmussen on the mound for Game 1, just like it did against New York. Rasmussen was marvelous in that 1-0 victory, with eight shutout innings, one hit allowed and 10 strikeouts. He didn't allow a hit until there was two outs in the eighth. Rasmussen got 23 swings and misses against a batting order that started eight left-handed hitters.

The 31-year-old comes off his best regular season as well, as he went 16-5 with a 2.67 ERA. He saw the Guardians twice and was 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA, holding them to a collective .159 average. No Cleveland batter has homered off him career, but Steven Kwan has had some success at 4-for-12 with two doubles. All-Star Jose Ramirez is 1-for-12 off Rasmussen.

The model forecasts him at 5.3 innings, 5.2 strikeouts, 4.0 hits allowed and 1.3 earned runs. Tampa Bay has won 13 consecutive games he has started, which dates back to right after the All-Star Game. Rasmussen is +143 to earn a victory.

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Cleveland had a historic comeback in the ALDS against my White Sox, rallying after losing the first two games at home. But that series only ended late Saturday, so the Guardians' rotation is a bit jumbled right now.

Manager Stephen Vogt, who played for the Rays briefly in 2012, wanted to wait until Monday morning to make his decision but made his call last night and will go with trade acquisition and southpaw Foster Griffin. He wasn't even in the majors from 2023-25 as Griffin went to Japan to revitalize his career. It worked, as he was 15-6 with a 3.60 ERA this year with Washington and Cleveland.

Griffin pitched 2.2 innings of relief in Game 3 of the ALDS in Chicago last Wednesday, allowing a run and two hits but with seven strikeouts. That's his only playoff experience. Well, in the United States, anyway. Because the southpaw began the season with the Nationals, he didn't see Tampa Bay. Only two Rays batters have even seen him in the regular season.

The model forecasts Griffin at 6.0 innings. 5.4 strikeouts, 4.4 hits allowed and 1.3 earned runs. He's +478 to win. The Rays are 32-17 against lefties, including playoffs.

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