War in Ukraine and Iran, what could change after Trump's defeat in the midterms

The first test for the new institutional structure concerns the Middle East front. After the vote, Trump gave an interview to the Financial Times declaring that "the United States has no immediate plans to strike Iran" and noting that "it seems like we're getting everything we want." While saying he was ready to take action if necessary, the President reiterated that "we are not really at war. I don't consider that we are at war like in Ukraine, like the First or Second World War". The number one in the White House, however, declared on Fox News that the Iranian issue had a negative impact on the Republican election result.

In this context, an analysis by The Guardian has highlighted that, if the administration were to move towards escalation, it would find in the new Congress with a Democratic majority an insurmountable obstacle to the approval of extraordinary military funding intended for the Pentagon. The economic leverage of the House of Representatives thus becomes the main obstacle to new high-cost operations in the Gulf.

On the front of the war in Ukraine, the Oval Office seems intent on continuing along the line of decision-making autonomy. In the same words to the Financial Times, Trump said he was optimistic, claiming that Ukraine and Russia were making progress: "I think both sides have reached the point of saying 'let's find an agreement'". An approach that effectively bypasses Congress, which in recent months had attempted to have an impact by approving sanctions on Russian oil.

The same goes for China. Although there is a need between Democrats and Republicans to contain Beijing's technological ambitions and protect Taiwan, the White House will be the one to personally manage the confrontation and the economic coexistence agreements with Xi Jinping.

For European countries and NATO, the outcome of the Midterms represents an element of institutional reassurance. As recalled by Corriere della Sera, on the defense level, the permanence of the United States in the Atlantic Alliance remains protected by the rule that prevents the president from withdrawing without the consent of the Senate. American political support for Europe, however, will not undergo radical upheavals. The Old Continent remains a fundamental ally, but from Washington, regardless of the color of Congress, the demand for greater investments in security will continue to rise.