Both the countries directly involved and those most dependent on supplies from the Gulf are affected by the economic impact of the war. In Italy, despite repeated government discounts, fuels are breaking records with prices that have exceeded the levels of July 2022, when the energy shock caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine was underway. Last September 3, for example, the green light on the motorway was 2.124 euros per litre, up 14 cents. The situation is also critical for diesel fuel, the recipient of a last minute mini-extension on discounts, expiring on September 10th. Without interventions, average diesel tariffs would rise to 2.316 euros per liter, above the March 2022 record.
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Fuel station - ©IPA/Fotogramma
In view of winter, the bill for Italian families risks being high also for gas with a direct impact on heating bills. The Amsterdam Title Transfer Facility (Ttf) on natural gas is keeping the pulse of the situation, which in September reached a new peak with trading above 75 euros per megawatt hour, the highest level since January 2023. Since February 28, day zero of the attacks in Iran, the cost of the energy product has more than doubled with cascading effects on production and distribution in many sectors.
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In the period between 1 March and 31 August 2026, Italy, which like other NATO allies does not directly participate in military operations against the ayatollah regime, faced indirect spending for the conflict of close to 14 billion euros. This is what the National Craft Confederation (Cna) calculates, which identifies fuel, gas and electricity as the heaviest items for families and businesses.
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With the crisis that for six months has effectively made commercial navigation impossible on the strait between Iran and Oman where, normally, a fifth of the world's oil transits, Cna calculates that Italian citizens and businesses have paid a total of 11.6 billion euros more just for energy products. Added to the bill are 2.3 billion in public interventions aimed at the temporary reduction of excise duties and other anti-high cost measures. After the Covid pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, new increases are caused by the third external shock in six years, determined this time by a conflict launched by the United States, historical allies, without any warning.
Overseas, the six months of war are impacting the real economy in the United States which perhaps initially thought of starting the conflict against Tehran with the prospect of a "quick" conclusion. In addition to the huge human and political costs, the New Yorker estimated both the direct costs due to military spending and energy price increases and indirect costs related to the increase in interest rates on loans. According to the periodical, in six months the War Department in Washington would have faced expenditures of between 80 and 100 billion dollars, 26 billion of which in ammunition and 9.2 billion for the damage caused by Iranian raids on US bases scattered in the Gulf, such as Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
Even more severe is the energy bill with an expense that according to the New Yorker stands at around 93 billion dollars, approximately three times an Italian financial package. The figure, based on monitoring conducted by the Climate Solutions Lab at the Watson School of International and Public Affairs at Brown University in Rhode Island, takes into account the financial impact of increasing gasoline and diesel prices.
Interest rates and inflation also weigh on the pockets of American families, which has grown by one percentage point since March 2026, reaching 3.4%. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analystics, calculates that each nucleus has already paid out an average of 200 dollars more per month to cover the indirect costs of a conflict which, with the resumption of attacks, appears far from over.
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