International Journalism Professor Mihail Gusman wrote about the increasing importance of the South Caucasus in global politics and the role of Azerbaijan in the new architecture of the region for AA Analysis.
The South Caucasus is going through a historical period today. Not only the political configuration of the region, but also its importance in world politics is changing. Until very recently, the South Caucasus was perceived primarily in terms of conflicts and antagonisms. Today, issues such as economic development, transportation corridors, energy, trade and regional cooperation are increasingly coming to the fore.
Especially after the restoration of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity, it became possible to talk about the region with a completely different logic, not as an area of constant conflict, but as a potential area of cooperation.
However, the interest of major global actors in the South Caucasus is also increasing. Here, the interests of Russia, Turkey, Iran, the European Union (EU), the United States (USA) and Central Asian countries intersect. Therefore, the balance becomes more complex and multidimensional. Here, a new system is being formed in which the roles of the countries in the region increase significantly, rather than the absolute superiority of any party. Azerbaijan also has an extremely special place in this system.
Within the framework of these new balances, Azerbaijan's position has been significantly strengthened. This situation is not only linked to the country's geography or energy resources. Today, Azerbaijan is increasingly standing out as an independent geopolitical actor that can conduct its own foreign policy and at the same time maintain relations with different centers of power.
In recent years, there has been a very significant change in the international perception of Azerbaijan. Until recently, the country was mostly talked about outside the region in the context of the Karabakh conflict. Today, this is a completely inadequate characterization to describe Azerbaijan. The country has become an important energy partner of Europe, a major transport hub and an active participant in international diplomacy. Azerbaijan also strengthened its relations with Türkiye, Central Asia, Russia, Europe, the USA and other states. This shows that Baku sees its foreign policy not as a choice between separate centers of power, but as an opportunity to work in more than one direction at the same time. Therefore, today Azerbaijan's international weight is significantly beyond what can be estimated based solely on the size of the country or the number of its population.
The ongoing war in Ukraine has greatly affected the geopolitical system of Eurasia. As trade routes, energy flows and logistics change, the importance of routes that enable goods and energy to move outside conflict zones has increased. This significantly increased the interest in the South Caucasus and the Caspian region. Following the latest developments, we see that Washington is trying to play a more visible role in regional solution processes. However, this should not be considered merely as a struggle for sphere of influence. Ideally, the South Caucasus could become an area where the interests of different states intersect, but this intersection does not necessarily have to lead to conflict. In the current situation, there is a unique opportunity to use the new geopolitical situation to improve cooperation. If the countries of the region are in favor of trade flows passing through their territory, infrastructure building and investments coming in, this in itself creates an additional incentive for stability.
Moreover, if everyone is interested in the stability of transport routes, energy security and trade development, there is an objective incentive to support peace, and here Azerbaijan is in a very strong position. Baku is able to talk to different centers of power and advance its national interests without giving up cooperation with different partners.
This new political situation in the South Caucasus also has the potential to objectively increase the role of the Central Corridor in trade between Europe and Asia. Modern international trade needs routes that are not only cheap, but also reliable, predictable and diversified. Recent years have shown very convincingly how fragile global logistics can become if major transport routes face political crises.
The Middle Lane gains special importance in this sense. The corridor connects China and Central Asia to the Caspian, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Türkiye and then European markets. However, infrastructure alone is not sufficient for the full development of trade in the region. Political stability must be ensured in all countries through which this route passes.
That is why the processes taking place in the South Caucasus today have significance far beyond the region. If sustainable development of transport links is achieved, the Central Corridor can become one of the most important elements of the new Eurasian logistics. Zangezur Corridor is potentially one of the most important elements in the entire East-West transportation system in terms of increasing the capacity of the Central Corridor. The importance of the corridor lies primarily in its ability to more directly connect Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan and then to Türkiye.
For Türkiye, this opens up additional opportunities to strengthen its role as a transit hub between Asia and Europe. For Azerbaijan, it constitutes another element of the region's transformation into an important transportation center. In this sense, the Zengezur Corridor is a project that will complement the Middle Corridor. The more interconnected railway and road routes there are, the higher the overall efficiency of the entire transportation system. In this sense, the opening of the Zangezur route may give additional impetus to the entire Middle Corridor.
Strengthening the Zengezur Corridor and therefore the Central Corridor offers Türkiye the opportunity to significantly strengthen its economic and political presence in the geography extending from Anatolia to Central Asia. Nowadays, spheres of influence are increasingly created through infrastructure rather than political statements. If there are railways, roads, energy systems, trade links and investments between countries, a completely different level of interdependence emerges between them. In this respect, Azerbaijan becomes an extremely important partner for Türkiye. Türkiye has the opportunity to establish a much deeper interaction with the Central Asian states through Azerbaijan.
Although the "one nation, two states" discourse between Azerbaijan and Türkiye is a well-known formula, it is not only the emotional and historical closeness of the two peoples that lies behind it. In recent years, this relationship has gained a very concrete political, economic and strategic content. Türkiye has become Azerbaijan's most important strategic partner. Azerbaijan is of great importance for Türkiye as a state that connects Anatolia to the Caspian Sea and Central Asia. And here a very interesting structure emerges: While Turkey gains additional opportunities to expand to the Caspian Sea and then to Central Asia via Azerbaijan, the Central Asian states also gain a more convenient exit to Türkiye and European markets. Thus, rather than a new military-political bloc, a new network of economic, transportation and political connections is formed.
When it comes to states with strong historical and strategic ties, relations between leaders also gain importance. In the example of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, we see the overlap of personal trust, political mutual understanding and strategic interests. When there is a bond of trust between leaders, this makes it significantly easier to make and implement complex decisions. Aliyev and Erdogan understand each other's political logic very well. This is especially important in times of serious regional change. However, relations between the two countries are based on strong social support and a very strong historical bond between the two countries. Therefore, although the personal closeness of the leaders is an important additional factor here, relations between Azerbaijan and Türkiye are based on the overlap of long-term interests.
In particular, the Shusha Declaration constituted a very important stage in the development of relations between the two states. The document, with its comprehensive content ranging from politics to security, economy to energy, transportation and humanitarian cooperation, actually reinforced the alliance nature of the relations between Azerbaijan and Türkiye. That is, it created a political basis for long-term strategic interaction. The importance of the Shusha Declaration goes beyond bilateral relations. Because this close interaction between Azerbaijan and Türkiye inevitably affects the entire architecture of the South Caucasus and the region's connections with Central Asia. This contributes to the development of commercial relations, transport links, cultural and humanitarian contacts, including the Organization of Turkish States. Trade, transport links, cultural and humanitarian contacts are developing between the countries of the Turkic World, and geography plays a huge role here. Azerbaijan has a unique location between Türkiye and Central Asia, between the Caspian and the Caucasus. Therefore, its role is naturally increasing. The most important step in this process is the development of economic relations. The more trade, transport links, investments and joint projects there are, the stronger the relations between states will become. However, it is too early to say that a closed geopolitical axis has already formed here. However, it can be said that there is an objective rapprochement process.
Considering all these developments, it would not be wrong to say that Azerbaijan's role in the South Caucasus will gradually increase in the coming years. Moreover, Azerbaijan can become one of the most important connection points not only in the South Caucasus, but also between Europe, the Caucasus, the Caspian region, Türkiye and the Central Asian countries. Here, we are no longer just talking about the importance of the country's geographical location. Azerbaijan created a new infrastructure around its geography, developed energy projects, built transportation routes, and created a network of political and economic partnerships. For this reason, it is possible to say that geography offers Azerbaijan an opportunity today, and state policies enable this opportunity to turn into a real political and economic resource.
