Hellofresh cuts forecast again and shares collapse to record lows

The meal kit mail order company Hellofresh cannot escape the crisis. In view of an expected sharp decline in sales and disappointing development of operating profit in the third quarter, the SDax-listed company is lowering its forecasts for the current year. The management had already appeared more pessimistic in August due to poor business performance, but now boss Dominik Richter had to admit that even that is no longer achievable. The stock fell significantly on Friday.

The paper lost almost 13 percent after the start of trading and hit a record low of 2.21 euros. The share has already lost almost two thirds of its value so far this year. The record high from the times of the Covid pandemic in autumn 2021 of almost 100 euros has long been out of reach.

In terms of sales, Hellofresh now expects a decline of between 9 and 11 percent compared to the previous year, adjusted for currency effects, in 2026. The Berliners had previously assumed that currency-adjusted revenue would fall by a maximum of 6 percent.

According to the lowered forecast, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda) adjusted for special effects are expected to be between 350 million euros and 370 million euros on a currency-adjusted basis, which is significantly lower than in 2025. Previously the range had been 375 million euros to 425 million euros.

According to its own information, Hellofresh was unable to acquire the volume of new customers in the important period around the end of the summer holidays ("back-to-school" period) that would have been necessary to achieve the previous forecast. In the third quarter, sales are likely to have fallen by a double-digit percentage, mainly due to the disappointing acquisition of new customers - Hellofresh expects a decline of between 11 and 12 percent.

Due to lower marketing expenses, the operating profit in the third quarter of 45 to 55 million euros is probably slightly higher than the previous year's figure of 40 million euros, but well below analysts' expectations.

After the drastic decline in share price, the company is now only worth around 350 million euros on the stock exchange. At its peak, the market capitalization was more than 16 billion euros. Because of its high market value, the Hellofresh share was even listed in the Dax from September 2021 to September 2022. The paper is now only listed in the SDax. The company went public in 2017. The issue price was 10.25 euros.