Autumn report from the economic institutes: Warning of structural weakness

The leading economic institutes are sending a warning to the federal government with their autumn report. The German economy is slowly working its way out of the deep valley. Growth this year at 1.3 percent and in 2027 at 1.1 percent is expected to be stronger than predicted in the spring. But because the location's weaknesses - bureaucracy, tax burdens, high energy costs, rising labor costs and a shortage of skilled workers - persist, the mini-recovery bought with exorbitant debt is in danger of running out of steam again as early as 2028.

The federal government itself is seen by economists as a location risk. On the one hand, they are not tackling the location problems courageously. On the other hand, the scientists complain that financial policy is going astray. Instead of revitalizing the private sector's languishing investments with tax relief and reducing bureaucracy, subsidies and social spending are being increased. The researchers explicitly mention the coalition's re-planned fuel discount as a negative example. Making fuel artificially cheaper is expensive and counterproductive. This is because the incentive for more economical consumption created by the higher oil price caused by the war is being counteracted.

As clear as the words of top economists are, they are unlikely to be heard by the government. The coalition partners will only pick the upwardly revised growth figures from the report and praise themselves for having stimulated the economy with their expansionary financial policy. The skyrocketing interest costs will be ignored, as will the warning for more sound budget policy. Because the SPD in particular demands that the debt party continues. The Social Democrats are pushing to water down the pension reform agreed before the summer break. In particular, the popular early retirement should continue to be supported by the state. This future-blind course exacerbates the demographic-related labor shortage, which threatens to prevent higher economic growth in the long term.

It is bitter that the Union and the SPD gratefully listened to the prominent economists when they recommended easing the debt brake after the federal election. But instead of using the scope - as promised - exclusively for additional investments in infrastructure and the Bundeswehr, people are primarily indulging in contemporary consumption. Nobody in Berlin listens to science anymore.