How war, security and coalition math are shaping the Israeli election

Israeli voters will head to the polls Tuesday in an election with implications beyond the country’s borders.

It is Israel’s first election since Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attacks, which killed around 1,200 people and saw more than 250 abducted. The Palestinian Ministry of Health says Israel’s subsequent military campaign in Gaza has killed more than 74,500 people. It is also the first vote since the U.S. and Israel began their joint war against Iran in February.

How Israel's elections work

Israelis vote for parties rather than directly electing a prime minister, with the Knesset’s 120 seats allocated through proportional representation. Parties must win at least 3.25% of the national vote to enter parliament.

Because outright majorities are rare, parties typically form coalitions. The president asks a Knesset member — usually the leader best placed to assemble a 61-seat majority — to form a government. If repeated attempts fail, another election can be called.

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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who leads the right-wing Likud party, returned to power in late 2022 with a coalition including far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties. The alliance has since been strained by disputes over a Gaza ceasefire and the conscription of ultra-Orthodox men.

Recent polls put both Netanyahu's bloc and the main opposition bloc, led by centrist former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, short of the 61 seats needed to govern, making smaller parties potentially decisive.

Arab parties are also in the running, but most of the main Jewish parties have ruled out alliances with them. More than 20% of Israel's population is Arab, but Arab parties have rarely joined governing coalitions.

Wartime priorities

The impending vote is effectively a referendum on Netanyahu, with the Hamas attacks having "transformed Israeli society," according to László Csicsmann, a Middle East expert at Corvinus University of Budapest in Hungary.

"Israel has been at war since October 7, 2023, and the so-called 'seven-front war' launched by Netanyahu has undoubtedly worn down Israeli society," he told CNBC. "The side that can better convince voters that it can protect the population is likely to win. Other campaign issues include mandatory military service, which is particularly sensitive for religious Jewish parties and Haredi communities."

Military service is compulsory for most Jewish, Druze and Circassian Israelis over 18, while most other Arab Israelis are exempt. The conscription of ultra-Orthodox men remains a major legal and political dispute.

The economic toll of the war is also a major issue, Csicsmann said.

"Due to the war and high military spending, economic issues are also dominating the political campaign," he told CNBC, noting that Israel currently spends around 8% of its gross domestic product on military expenditure. "In addition, nearly every family has a soldier or reservist who has been called up and has left their job for months."

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Defense and security are also at the forefront of the election, said Daniel Schatz, a political scientist and former visiting scholar at Harvard, Stanford and Georgetown.

"For Israel, the stakes include restoring confidence in government and deciding how military power translates into lasting security," he told CNBC in an email. "For its neighbors and international partners, the question is whether the next government can turn battlefield achievements into workable political arrangements."

Schatz said that while Netanyahu's supporters see the incumbent prime minister as "an experienced leader confronting formidable threats," his critics see failures of preparedness, accountability and strategic direction.

In September, book extracts published by Israeli newspaper Haaretz alleged that Netanyahu had been warned that Hamas was planning a major offensive around a week before the Oct. 7 attacks. Netanyahu called those claims an "absolute lie," and has reportedly filed a defamation lawsuit against the newspaper.

But Schatz told CNBC that any lingering dissatisfaction with Netanyahu should not be confused with support for the left.

"Some voters want different leadership precisely because they believe it would deliver security more effectively," he said.

He added that a change in prime minister and the governing coalition would also be unlikely to produce a dramatic shift in Israel's stance on Palestinian statehood, Iran and other foreign policy issues.

Netanyahu's right-wing Likud party is running on a manifesto promising "security without compromise," along with pledges to maintain a free economy and financial markets and a bid to strengthen "Israel as a regional and technological power."

Eisenkot's Yashar party says it wants to make Israel a "democratic, powerful, progressive and secure" country, and it also has a focus on national security – including a proposed policy of integrating ultra-Orthodox and Arab communities into compulsory military service.

Palestine, Iran and international relations

Farzan Sabet, senior analyst at the Eurasia Group think tank, told CNBC the main blocs competing for power are "quite hawkish on security" and would have comparable policies across key areas like confronting Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

But he added that a new coalition government composed mainly of anti-Netanyahu bloc parties would "probably prefer to review the Israeli strategy towards Tehran" before pursuing any major escalation.

The U.S. and Israel have reportedly drawn up plans for possible renewed strikes on Iran after the midterm elections on Nov. 3, while Iran's army chief has said it is ready for "asymmetric warfare."

Eurasia's Sabet added that the anti-Netanyahu bloc might be "more conciliatory on some issues," such as military action in Gaza, especially if doing so would improve U.S. ties and Israel's international standing while still meeting the country's basic security needs.

He said a government composed mostly of the anti-Netanyahu bloc would likely take fewer actions in the West Bank, crack down on settler violence against Palestinians there, and avoid annexation of Palestinian land.

The West Bank is a Palestinian territory west of the Jordan River where Israeli settlements have been expanding for decades. In recent years, violence and forced displacement of Palestinians by settlers have drawn condemnation from lawmakers in the U.S. and beyond.

But Sabet told CNBC: "While the opposition to Netanyahu has the edge in the latest Israeli election polls, this will be a tight race, with several possible outcomes."