Hull scored nine league goals from set plays last season, the joint-fewest in the Championship. Yet two in 21 minutes earned them a victory over Manchester United on Saturday.
It was a disastrous start to the campaign for the visitors. While Michael Carrick said before the game it would not be easy, he would not have expected victory being so straightforward for Hull. It was a match United simply had to win given the gulf in resources and expectation. Opta rated their chance of victory at 68.9% before kick-off.
United’s inability to deal with Oli McBurnie as the target man was painful to watch. Their slack defending on the set pieces from which Hull scored will also draw focus. Their attacking should be the greatest concern, though.
A glance at expected goal numbers can paint a false impression. Hull generated 1.01 expected goals to United’s 1.83, so did the visitors deserve to win? The issue is the breakdown of chances that contributed to the total. United had 21 shots, 16 of which were worth less than 0.1 expected goals.
This was a theme last season, albeit less obvious when they performed well under Carrick. United’s open-play shots were worth an average of 0.104 expected goals in 2025-26, the third worst rate among teams that finished in the top half of the Premier League. Against Hull, this figure was just 0.087.
Not until the 78th minute did a notable opportunity fall to a player they would hope to have one, as Bryan Mbeumo received a through ball from Matheus Cunha. Before that, their highest-value chances fell to Patrick Dorgu and Noussair Mazraoui. The former has experience as a winger, and started in the attacking midfield trio in United’s 4-2-3-1 formation, but the duo have just 16 top-flight goals between them. They are not reliable chance converters.
Marcus Rashford is far stronger. He should take Dorgu’s berth in the long term, assuming he remains with the club. His natural attacking instincts may have aided in the creation of better chances in the first half. Regardless, it was alarming how hard United found it to fashion valuable opportunities against a club that conceded the second-most expected goals in the 2025-26 Championship.
Hull’s manager, Sergej Jakirovic, used a back five. He deployed three centre-backs on 10 occasions last season, notably in victories in the playoff semi-final second leg against Millwall and the final against Middlesbrough.
It worked against United, with the extra bodies at the back able to crowd out attackers. Opta’s shot map showed Hull conceded eight efforts in the “danger zone” – the centre of the penalty area that covers the width of the six-yard box out to the 18-yard line. Five of the eight were headers, which are harder to convert, leaving little else of note. Space in the most valuable real estate came at a premium at the MKM Stadium and United were unable to penetrate it.
This structure has caused United problems before. They have now won only one of their last six league matches against teams that started with a back three or five. Leeds won 2-1 at Old Trafford in April with a 3-4-3 formation and used the same system to draw 1-1 two weeks ago in a pre-season friendly. Milan employed the same framework when beating United 4-2 in their final warm-up game.
