The militia is moving closer to the strategically important Bab al-Mandab Strait following reports of fighting in the port city of Mocha. The conflict could again escalate into a civil war.
Is the civil war flaring up again in Yemen? The worsening situation in the poorest country in the Arab world is closely linked to the Iran conflict and could thwart global efforts to bring oil from the Gulf region to global markets. An important role is played by an Iranian-backed rebel group that wants to prevent neighboring Saudi Arabia from using a key transport alternative to the Strait of Hormuz - a move that could tear Yemen apart again.
More than 40 million people live in Yemen who fear a resumption of the civil war. The conflict has already cost around 150,000 people their lives and brought countless others to the brink of famine. The crisis is considered one of the worst in the world. In 2022, a ceasefire between the Houthis on the one hand and the internationally recognized government and a Saudi-backed alliance on the other came into force. This ceasefire is now in danger of ending.
Yemen's problems stem in part from its strategic location at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula and on the Bab al-Mandab Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea. The shipping route is one of the most important in the world. It is particularly important because Iran continues to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Residents of the strategic port city of Mocha told the AP news agency that members of the Houthi militia had advanced into the city, which was previously controlled by Yemen's internationally recognized government. If the information is confirmed, this would represent a significant advance by the insurgents. In addition, another crucial gateway for the import of food and other relief supplies would be at risk.
If Mocha were taken over, the militia would only be around 80 kilometers from Bab al-Mandab. That would make shipping traffic in the Red Sea even more difficult, and not just for the Saudis. The US has signaled that it wants to resolve the conflict with Iran and ensure the global transport of oil by tankers rather than escalating the fight. However, the Houthis have imposed a blockade on Saudi ships and are threatening attacks on the country's oil exports across the Red Sea.
Iran is currently trying to restrict oil deliveries from the Gulf region in line with its own war goals. Tehran can only welcome it if the Houthis cause difficulties for the US-allied Saudis. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said this week that the path to diplomacy remains open but that his country will not hesitate to defend itself.
Among the region's armed groups supported by Iran, the Houthis were less prominent than Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. This fact and their relative geographical distance have helped ensure that the Houthis have been spared from Israeli attacks since the beginning of the Gaza war.
However, the Houthis quickly found themselves targeted by US airstrikes when they attacked ships in the Red Sea off Yemen's western coast that they claimed were linked to Israel. These attacks soon subsided.
Now the Houthi rebels are back with a new goal: targeting ships and other Saudi interests as the kingdom tries to bring its oil to global markets via the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait. A trillion dollars worth of goods are transported through this Red Sea corridor every year.
The Houthis are no longer only present in the northern part of the west coast, said Ahmed Nagi, senior Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group. They now controlled a much larger section of the coast and had thus moved closer to the areas around Bab al-Mandab.
For consumers around the world already concerned about Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the threat to another global shipping route is an alarming signal. The price of a barrel of crude oil has already climbed back to more than $100.
