“He has the image of a winner”: which presidential candidate has the most to fear from Teddy Riner’s candidacy?

We mainly knew him in a kimono, we discover him with the candidate's costume. In two days, Teddy Riner made a resounding entry, Monday, November 9, into the race for the presidential election. Since then, observers have wondered about the origins of this candidacy, its future and the electoral potential of the five-time Olympic champion.

According to an Ifop survey for LCI and Sud Radio, 22% of those questioned say they are ready to vote for the judoka. In the same survey, he benefits from a “good opinion” among 70% of French people. According to the Toluna Harris Interactive barometer published Monday, it is based on an “electoral potential” of 10%. And on X and Instagram, the video of his declaration of candidacy has more than 25 million views. The first poll measuring voting intentions in his favor, carried out by Cluster17 and published Sunday by Politico, however, only credits him with 2% of the votes, in a scenario with 18 candidates. So many figures which do not clarify the chances of Teddy Riner, whose atypical profile seems able to interest electorates from diverse backgrounds.

Potential among the young electorate coveted by Jean-Luc Mélenchon

According to the Harris Interactive survey, 22% of La France Insoumise supporters could vote for Teddy Riner. Ifop measures the same proportion (21%). The sociology of the judoka's potential electorate appears likely to worry LFI executives. “We have a segment of the population which is still quite young and which corresponds quite clearly to the potential electorate of Jean-Luc Mélenchon”, analyzes to franceinfo Jean-Daniel Lévy, deputy director of Toluna Harris Interactive. And we also have an electorate which comes more from the middle and working classes and which partly overlaps with the electorate of the LFI candidate.

“He is a very popular sportsman, which speaks to young people, as does his anti-racism and his clear positions against the National Rally”, supports the historian Jean Garrigues, president of the International Commission for the History of State Assemblies

“He can take votes from Jean-Luc Mélenchon, in this audience of 18-24 year olds, especially since he himself embodies diversity as a black man.”

Jean Garrigues, historian

at franceinfo

The executives of La France insoumise are currently trying to put this new candidacy at bay. “Teddy Riner, who at the time said he adored Nicolas Sarkozy,” Mathilde Panot, the leader of the LFI deputies, recalled Tuesday in the Assembly. "I think that we should not take voters for imbeciles. Young voters do not come to us for a beauty contest, but for content", reassures Eric Coquerel, also inviting us to take a step back from the polls carried out "in a hurry, in one night", in the wake of Teddy Riner's speech. “It’s pretty much the same program as Gabriel Attal,” judges the MP, “so I think he’s another potential candidate from the central bloc.” At a meeting in La Souterraine (Creuse) on Wednesday, Jean-Luc Mélenchon was on the same line, while complimenting his new rival: "He has already made a speech that I found interesting", commented the candidate. “He’s a right-wing guy, but he’s got a good look.”

A rival for Raphaël Glucksmann among voters in search of “hope”

The Olympic champion does not stop himself from hunting on the grounds of social democracy either. According to the Ifop opinion survey, 32% of environmentalist voters and 20% of socialists say they are ready to slip a Riner ballot into the ballot box. According to Jean Garrigues, this can be explained by a question of image at a time when Raphaël Glucksmann is struggling to get his campaign off the ground. “The perception that some voters may have is that he would basically better embody this center left, when Raphaël Glucksmann is struggling to appear as a candidate,” explains the historian. “And then in a society of images like ours, he has an image of a winner, a fighter and ultimately a man of the people. Which is something that Raphaël Glucksmann, considered more Parisian, more intellectual, does not have.”

In a central space, where the candidates raise the specter of a second round between LFI and the RN to mobilize their voters, Teddy Riner has a card to play to generate enthusiasm. “We are facing French people who need to have a little hope,” summarizes Jean-Daniel Lévy on RMC.

But in the Glucksmann camp, we look at this new candidacy “without anxiety”. “He has potential, he embodies France which is winning, but then we will see when he gets into the tough stuff,” reacts François Kalfon, support for Raphaël Glucksmann. There is still a way to go before transforming popularity into political support. “He will still have to tell a few things, because in ambiguity, everyone loves you,” adds the MEP. “The real thing is when we bump into each other. He is a fighter, but he will have to bump into it.”

A positioning “neither left nor right” which encroaches on Gabriel Attal

The Renaissance presidential candidate immediately “welcomed” Teddy Riner to the “race” for the Elysée. It “enriches the existing political offering,” said the former Prime Minister on France Inter. However, in view of his first words and his first proposals revealed in Le Parisien and in his declaration of candidacy, the judoka ventures on the same political tatami as Gabriel Attal, between the "capitalization share" in the pension system, the reduction of social charges to bring the net salary closer to the gross or even the claimed positioning "neither left nor right".

Moreover, 91% of Renaissance supporters have a good opinion of the five-time Olympic champion and 24% say they are ready to vote for him, according to the Ifop survey. "The 'neither left nor right' reminds me of someone. There is a copyright, but we are willing to share it without worry with him. There is no property right over it", smiles former minister Prisca Thevenot, support of Gabriel Attal.

“In his candidacy declaration video, we find a lot of macronism, to the word. As a former government spokesperson, I find my elements of language.”

Prisca Thevenot, support of Gabriel Attal

at franceinfo

If the Renaissance candidate has endeavored to distance himself in recent months from the record of Macronism, it will be necessary to observe whether Teddy Riner accepts part of the cumbersome legacy of President Macron. “It is an absolute risk because today, all those who have been close in one way or another to Emmanuel Macron have suffered from the situation,” analyzes Jean-Daniel Lévy. The judoka could pay for his proximity to the Head of State symbolized by the congratulatory message sent Monday by Emmanuel Macron to the new candidate.

Right-wing themes that could speak to Edouard Philippe's electorate

A little further to the right, voters appear in theory less permeable. “It’s an older electorate, a little more bourgeois, CSP+, which is more sensitive to the notions of expertise and experience than the young electorate,” explains Jean Garrigues. But certain themes put forward by Teddy Riner could still appeal to supporters of Edouard Philippe. “He has a profile marked on the left on values ​​(discrimination and the fight against racism) and marked on the right on the themes of authority and the society of effort”, reminds franceinfo Ariane Ahmadi Kermanshahani, founder of Kerman Consulting.