The International Monetary Fund promotes the 'resilience' of growth - from Italy to Germany up to the entire euro area - despite the record sequence of geopolitical shocks culminating in the war in the Middle East. But he warns: despite the 'danger averted', the resilience of the economy is close to the limit.
And governments will not be able to rely much on budget measures, with the global deficit returning to Covid-19 levels. Nor, as in the past, on the help of central banks. What comes to governments from the meetings in Bangkok is a warning, even if the war on Iran has so far not caused the earthquake that was feared. Italy sees growth for 2026 promoted to 0.8% against 0.5% last July, and in 2027 it would mark 0.6% according to the World Economic Outlook.
The deficit and debt trajectory are also better than those of the government. Germany improves its 2026 growth by 0.6 percentage points to 1.3%, the euro area stops at 1.1%, improving by only 0.2 points, held back by France which instead worsens. Global growth is slowing but holding up, 3.1% this year and 3.4% next, with the US hovering above 2% thanks to the boom in artificial intelligence.
Yet from the enormous conference center named after the Thai queen Sirikit a warning to be careful rings out. The economy "has held up despite an exceptional barrage of shocks", however "this resilience is under strain" and "may soon be put to the test", warns IMF chief economist Silvana Tenreyro.
The credit for resilience goes to AI, which has also mobilized record investments in Europe, and generally in all countries linked to the data center or microchip supply chain. And to the "reorientation of energy supplies" after the Hormuz shock. Those AI investments aimed at models that China is making much less profitable. And a correction in stock market valuations that revolve around high-tech in the US could have "serious" consequences.
Energy supplies "are running thin" and "further geopolitical shocks may further impact prices and supply disruptions", warns Tenreyro. Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti, arriving in Bangkok on Thursday when the governor of the Bank of Italy will also be there, anticipates "big clouds on the horizon".
Making the picture that emerges from the IMF meetings worse is the state of the public accounts of the advanced economies: according to the WEO, which photographs the state and prospects of the world economy, that deficit will reach 5.2% this year, the highest level since the 2021 pandemic emergency which had required exceptional measures. In China and the USA it will exceed 8% of GDP. A risk for the world economy.
Because between such high deficits and high inflation due to energy shock - 3.6% in the USA, 3.3% in Italy, 3.1% in the euro area is the IMF's 2026 estimate - the yields on US securities in recent weeks have also dragged European debt into a risky spiral. Such high yields are capable of triggering a rush of interest to be paid on public debt and signal that "the need for an adjustment of public budgets is even more urgent".
If a decade ago central banks were fighting 'disinflation' and could afford quantitative easing, aid to governments which increased inflation, today the geopolitical framework sees multilateral cooperation dissolved and has brought inflation back to center stage. ECB President Christine Lagarde and her Fed colleague Kevin Warsh - appointed by Trump with the implication that he would help the mid-term elections by cutting rates - arrive in Bangkok welcomed by the IMF's invitation to a monetary policy "firmly focused on price stability", with an orientation "sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation back to the target quickly". A cold shower in view of a 2027 full of electoral events.
The IMF improves Italy's GDP, from 0.5% to 0.8% in 2026
The International Monetary Fund improves its forecast for the growth of the Italian economy in 2026 by 0.3 percentage points, from 0.5% to 0.8% compared to the update of the estimates published in July, and adds a decimal to the growth estimate for 2027, bringing it to 0.6%.
We can read it in the World Economic Outlook presented during the IMF meetings in Bangkok.
Italy would close 2026 with an annual average inflation rate of 3.3%, above the euro area average of 3.1%, before slowing down and converging on the average of its European partners at 2.8% in 2027. The forecast is from the International Monetary Fund, which in its World Economic Outlook places only Spain, among the main euro economies, above Italy in terms of the inflationary impact of the energy shock, with a +3.7% in 2026 and then 2.7% in 2027. Germany, according to the WEO, would score 2.7% in 2026 and then 3.1%, France would stop at 2.4% and then 2.2%. The immediate impact of the energy crisis caused by the war in the Middle East is particularly strong in the United States: the IMF expects 3.6% and 2.8% inflation in 2026 and 2027 respectively.
