The IMF's warning: 'The world economy has held up, but is at its limit. Italy's GDP improves

The world economy "has held up despite an exceptional barrage of shocks" in the last seven years culminating in the war in the Middle East: however "this resilience is under strain" and "may soon be put to the test". The alarm is found in the introduction to the World Economic Outlook by IMF chief economist Silvana Tenreyro: "the reorientation of energy supplies" and "the boom in AI investments" have supported growth. However, "energy supplies are running low" - warns Tenreyro - and "further geopolitical shocks may still have repercussions on prices and disruptions to supplies". Furthermore, high debt limits fiscal maneuver space, and central banks have their hands tied as they must focus on price stability.

The IMF improves Italy's GDP, from 0.5% to 0.8% in 2026

The International Monetary Fund improves its forecast for the growth of the Italian economy in 2026 by 0.3 percentage points, from 0.5% to 0.8% compared to the update of the estimates published in July, and adds a decimal to the growth estimate for 2027, bringing it to 0.6%.

We can read it in the World Economic Outlook presented during the IMF meetings in Bangkok.

Italy would close 2026 with an annual average inflation rate of 3.3%, above the euro area average of 3.1%, before slowing down and converging on the average of its European partners at 2.8% in 2027. The forecast is from the International Monetary Fund, which in its World Economic Outlook places only Spain, among the main euro economies, above Italy in terms of the inflationary impact of the energy shock, with a +3.7% in 2026 and then 2.7% in 2027. Germany, according to the WEO, would score 2.7% in 2026 and then 3.1%, France would stop at 2.4% and then 2.2%. The immediate impact of the energy crisis caused by the war in the Middle East is particularly strong in the United States: the IMF expects 3.6% and 2.8% inflation in 2026 and 2027 respectively.