[Next week’s economy] How much has the number of employed people increased? IMF announces revisions to Korea’s growth rate forecast

Next week (12th to 16th), economic indicators closely related to people's livelihood, such as the number of employed people and household loan trends, will be revealed.

Attention is also focused on a new report from an international organization containing the outlook for Korea's economic growth this year and the winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics. Major economic institutions are subject to government inspection.

The National Data Agency will release the September employment trend report on the 16th.

The report contains several indicators showing the employment situation, which President Lee Jae-myung selected as one of the three core social policies.

First of all, the change in the number of employed people is noteworthy. The number of employed people in August increased by 184,000 from a year ago, expanding the increase by about 76,000 from the previous month. The key question is whether employment in the manufacturing, construction, and lodging/restaurant industries, which have been in poor recent times, increases.

The Ministry of Finance and Economy publishes the October issue of ‘Recent Economic Trends’ (Green Book) on the same day. In the September issue, it maintained a positive diagnosis on the Korean economic situation, saying, “The trend of solid economic recovery continues.”

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will release its World Economic Outlook report for October on the 13th.

This usually includes forecasts of economic indicators, including the growth rate of all member countries. In a report released in July, the IMF revised Korea's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate forecast for this year to 2.6%, up 0.7 percentage points from three months ago.

The IMF is expected to further increase Korea's growth rate in this report.

The average growth rate forecast for Korea this year recently released by eight major investment banks (IBs) was around 3.5%, and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecast it at 3.7%.

The Bank of Korea announces financial market trends for September on the 15th.

While the household loan balance of the five major banks (KB Kookmin, Shinhan, Hana, Woori, and NH Nonghyup) at the end of September was calculated to have decreased by about 1.3 trillion won compared to the end of August, figures based on all deposit banks are also revealed.

Previously, the monthly increase in household loans from deposit banks had decreased noticeably, reaching 7.6 trillion won in June, 5.5 trillion won in July, and 3.4 trillion won in August.

On this day, trends in the increase and decrease in household loans in the entire financial sector will also be revealed.

Recently, as the 'debt investment' craze has slowed, demand for credit loans from banking and secondary financial institutions has decreased. It is predicted that last month's household loan balance will be negative compared to the previous month for the first time this year. The financial sector estimates that the decrease in balance will be in the range of 1.5 trillion to 2 trillion won.

Starting on the 12th, an amendment to the bad debt regulations will be implemented to prevent the financial sector from repeatedly extending the statute of limitations on personal delinquent claims. The revised bill aims to introduce a ‘conditional loan loss recognition system’.

Until now, financial companies have enjoyed tax benefits by recognizing personal delinquent claims as bad debts, and have continued to collect by repeatedly extending the statute of limitations on the claims. However, in the future, it is expected that this practice will be eliminated as it will be possible to receive bad debt recognition on the condition that the statute of limitations is completed when applying for bad debt recognition for delinquent claims.

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences announces the winners of this year's Nobel Prize in Economics on the 12th (local time).

Last year, Professor Joel Mauquier of Northwestern University, Philippe Aghion, Professor of Collège de France, and Professor Peter Howitt of Brown University were selected as award winners, highlighting the topic of sustainable growth.

The government audit continues. On the 12th, the Bank of Korea will undergo a government audit at the Bank of Korea headquarters.

Ten days ahead of the Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Committee's monetary policy direction decision meeting scheduled for the 22nd, attention is being paid to the Bank of Korea's analysis of the current economic situation.

The opposition party is expected to raise questions about the Bank of Korea's recent decision not to disclose statistics on the international ranking of foreign exchange reserves.

In the Fair Trade Commission's government audit scheduled for the National Assembly on the same day, issues handled by the Fair Trade Commission, such as the investigation of major retailers including Coupang and the food industry collusion case, are expected to become issues.

On the 13th, the National Tax Service and three regional tax offices, including Seoul, Central, and Incheon, will receive a national inspection at the Sejong Government Complex 2, and on the 15th, the National Data Service, the Korea Customs Service, and the Public Procurement Service will each receive a national inspection at the Daejeon Government Complex.

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance and Economy Lee Hyung-il will visit Bangkok, Thailand from the 14th to the 18th to attend the finance ministers' meeting of the G20 and G7 and the annual general meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank (WB). It is expected that an opportunity will be provided to discuss current issues in the global economy with heads of economic and financial policies of major countries and to share the vision and prospects of the Korean economy with the international community.