Already a couple of days before the mid-term elections, it was noticed in my computer. The emails I've received from Donald Trump suddenly had a new sender: JD Vance.
The Vice President thanked me for my "incredible efforts" in the Maga movement while expressing concern about what might happen if "patriots" I chose to stay home on election day.
In another email, I was asked to answer the question of whether the United States would say no to socialism. There were two answer options: "Yes, Maga!" or "No, I'm a Marxist!".
Of course, it is not JD Vance who personally wrote these emails. I and hundreds of thousands of others get them for attending Trump rallies. The real senders are various Republican Action Committees.
But they are one of many signs that the campaign for the presidential election in 2028 has already started stealthily. And that party strategists are feeling out how a Vance candidacy might work.
That JD Vance himself wants to be Trump's successor is the worst kept secret in Washington. At the same time, there are many obstacles on his way to the White House.
The first, obvious, is that a large majority of voters have just rejected Trump's policies. The election was a vote of no confidence not only in the president, but also in the vice president.
As Trump toured the US asking voters to "pretend" he was on the ballot, Vance did the same, but in front of much smaller crowds.
He has tried to add to his style with a style similar to that of the boss, including rough personal attacks on opponents.
Like when he singled out Texas Democrat James Talarico as gay and said he "wouldn't want to see his search history." Or when he immediately embraced the Republican television ad in Ohio, where the mother of Democrat Amy Acton called her daughter a liar. Despite the fact that the mother lost custody of her daughter 50 years ago after her husband sexually abused her.
Such distastefulness often works for Trump. But when Vance says them, it kind of doesn't fly.
Over the past few weeks, I've spoken to loyal Trump voters who say they intend to vote for JD Vance in 2028. But they say so without much commitment.
If the vice president wants to become president, as all observers believe, he will have to walk a very difficult balancing act in the next two years.
He needs to show that he doesn't think exactly the same as Trump. For example, about the war in Iran, which he has privately opposed and which he singled out after the election as the reason for the Republicans' loss.
But since Trump will be a Republican godfather for those two years, and likely longer than that, he also needs to be loyal to him.
In Trump's world, it requires knee-jerk and flattery, constant talk that he is "the greatest president ever" who should receive the Nobel Peace Prize.
As if this were not enough, the midterm elections showed that the coalition of voters that brought Trump to power in 2024 has weathered and may have been a one-off.
Latino voters, black men, young voters—the list is long of groups that moved left in this election. Winning them back is a task the Republicans' next presidential candidate must tackle.
Thus, if Vance runs in 2028, he must first retain the support of those who believe that Trump is always right. That is at most 30 percent of the electorate.
But he also needs to attract more voters. And his behavior so far most likely suggests that he seeks them to the right of Maga. He has flirted with groups whose agenda can be described as quite extreme and anti-Semitic.
Or he chooses to move towards the middle. Which puts him at risk of losing many of Trump's most loyal supporters – and perhaps the support of the president.
Ten years ago, Vance compared Trump to Hitler. Then he was converted and became the president's chief gun-bearer. That he would change his mind publicly once again does not seem likely. Nor would it command the respect of ordinary voters.
Other potential Republican presidential candidates are now rushing to distance themselves from Trump. While Vance finds himself being the face of the politics the voters just rejected.
Influential pundits judge his chances.
"JD Vance Is Probably Smoked," read a headline in the New York Times on Monday. Maybe it's wishful thinking from the liberal newspaper. But the vice president has a difficult task ahead of him.
Read more:
Advice to JD Vance: Don't run for president
What has Usha Vance sacrificed to be America's "second lady"?
