The starting position is the same as it has been since the election results were determined on 17 September. The four parties that went to the election with Magdalena Andersson as the desired Prime Minister collect a majority consisting of 176 seats in the Riksdag. The parties that were the basis of Ulf Kristersson's government for four years have a total of only 173 members.
With that balance of power, the path to a new government could seem clear. However, red lines and unexpected developments have created both blockages and new openings. Here is DN's guide to the game plan as it looks 59 days after the election.
The resurrection of the bourgeois alliance?
It has long seemed dead and buried, but Jimmie Åkesson of all people suddenly thought it was time to breathe life into the bourgeois quartet. At a press conference in his hometown of Sölvesborg on Friday, November 6, the SD leader declared that he was prepared to release Ulf Kristersson as prime minister in a government consisting of M, KD, L - and also C.
Åkesson did not set any conditions for his support, but at the same time marked that SD would go into "full opposition" at the same moment that such a government takes office.
- You are on your own, as the SD leader put it.
One of the points of the play is to put pressure on the Center Party, which in the election campaign said firmly no to government cooperation with SD. But maybe C can be lured over if SD neither has ministerial posts nor demands any political agreement? Åkesson sees a new version of the bourgeois alliance as a less bad alternative than an S government.
Ulf Kristersson (M) immediately stated that the probe mission he has right now suddenly seemed somewhat less impossible. And C leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist did not dismiss the possibility. She wants more information from Kristersson about how he intends to handle such a constellation.
The catch is that a bourgeois four-party government would be dependent on SD in every vote where S, V and MP make common cause. The red-green trio collects 151 mandates against 136 for the bourgeois. Åkesson becomes wave master. Kristersson risks ending up in budget chaos. And how does that rhyme with C's red lines?
Andersson wears Dadgostar
In order to prevent the Centre's possible change of sides, Magdalena Andersson put her foot down two days after Åkesson's announcement. She port V from her government but welcomes C and MP. At the same time, she has promised influence for V in other ways: through an agreement on the policy to be pursued and influence over the decision-making processes, for example through officials in the Government Office.
- Their voters must of course also be counted, said the S leader when she made her announcement.
In this way, she adapts to C, who has so far adamantly refused to let V into the government. Andersson's assessment is that V's demands for influence can be met with other than ministerial posts, while she sees C's position as more unwaveringly ideological.
The decisive weakness is that V has so far not dropped his demand for ministerial positions. MPs are also negative to this solution. They want an effective majority government, which requires four parties.
The red-green quartet
If Magdalena Andersson is to become Prime Minister, she needs the mandates from all four parties S, V, C and MP. It gives weight to the demands from V, and also MP, that the entire quartet should share the ministerial posts.
The Left Party has made this a central issue. Nooshi Dadgostar's big project for several years has been to prepare the party to be able to step into a government for the first time since its founding in 1917. The leftists are tired of being a support party for S, they want to participate fully as an equal. Furthermore, they do not trust S to follow through on agreed policies if V does not secure influence even over the details.
The Green Party also wants this solution. For them, the experiences from the chaotic years as a minority government from 2014 to 2022 come into play. In addition, they believe that an effective climate policy requires an active majority.
The four-party solution has also been on Magdalena Andersson's drawing board, but now her assessment is that it is not a viable path.
Are there wilds in the game?
Theoretically, all possible solutions can be imagined. A variant that has been discussed is S, V and MP in the government, combined with a cooperation agreement with C. And C has not completely given up hope for what they call a middle solution (S+C+MP+KD+L), even though that proposal has already been voted down in the Riksdag.
