The weekend offered another round of magical thinking from the President of the United States. On Sunday, he claimed that an "energy ceasefire" had been reached between Russia and Ukraine, and that both sides had agreed to it.
But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ironically pointed out that Putin probably "doesn't read Truth Social," and Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities continued.
Just like countless times during the war against Iran, this was a "deal" that the self-proclaimed master negotiator Trump trumpeted before it was done.
And at the time of this writing, it is doubtful that the Kremlin would ever agree to such a truce – as it would damage its war aims, to force Ukraine to capitulate.
However, the Russians were quick to give the go-ahead for the weekend's second agreement, the one that helps them in the war. The agreement to sell diesel to the United States is believed to provide the equivalent of upwards of SEK 50 billion to Putin's war chest.
For Trump, it is unimportant whether Ukraine survives or not. The only thing that matters to him right now is keeping his majority of loyalists in Congress.
And if there's a single issue hurting Republicans ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections, it's fuel prices. Especially the record high diesel prices, as they raise farmers' costs and thus food prices.
I've just spent two weeks traveling in four states in the western US and can attest that almost all voters – including the most Trump loyalists – pretty much just worry about this.
The fact that the price of diesel has reached record levels is Trump's own fault. It's because of his war on Iran, and the voters understand that.
Even the president himself seems to recognize that this is a problem. And in that situation he has to do something - at least it has to look like he's doing something.
Hence the idea to buy diesel from Putin. And shift the blame for the price shocks to Zelenskyi.
Trump is now being praised by his staunchest supporters in Congress.
- This is yet another example of the president thinking outside the box, said Republican Tom Emmer on one of Sunday's television talk shows.
But most voters will not be convinced that this was a smart move.
Because even if diesel prices moved slightly downwards over the weekend, most economists do not believe that the effect of the agreement will be particularly large. The proposed deliveries from Russia correspond to just under 4 percent of the global need.
As has often been pointed out, Trump does not have any "adults in the room" around him during this second term.
No one objects to his homegrown ideas and thinking outside the box. That is why he persists with his tariff war against the outside world, which will conjure up factories all over the American rust belt. That's why he brought himself to buy hundreds of thousands of tons of beef from Argentina, believing it would lower food prices in the United States.
In this specific case, it's about no advisers being able to explain to Trump how the world economy works - that fuel prices in the US are affected by global markets.
And that therefore a few boatloads of Russian diesel is not some magic formula that gives American voters more money in their wallets. That the problem lies in the Strait of Hormuz and that the damage has already been done.
Read more:
Zelensky: "Waiting for details of the ceasefire"
