International Press Review: Geopolitics, US-China Trade, and Global Markets

"In practical terms, the issue of a trilateral meeting was not discussed here in New York. What matters here is not talk about certain formats or far-fetched schemes. What is needed here is real progress toward a serious political settlement. It seems that Zelensky and his team are not yet ready for this," Grigory Karasin, a member of the Russian delegation to the UN General Assembly and chairman of the Russian Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, told Izvestia.

The problem stems primarily from differing approaches to the settlement itself, Igor Istomin, acting head of the MGIMO Applied Analysis of International Processes Department, noted. According to him, Moscow has repeatedly stated its readiness to seek solutions through diplomatic channels, but not at the expense of its own interests. Previous attempts at reaching an agreement have been hindered by Kiev and the European countries supporting it, which have been unwilling to engage in reciprocal dialogue while duly considering Russia's position. Recent signals from the Ukrainian side do not provide sufficient reason to believe that this approach has changed significantly, the expert added.

According to Istomin, the dialogue will only be substantive if Kiev stops relying on unconditional support from European countries. The Ukrainian side is largely offsetting the ongoing difficulties in its relations with Washington by relying on assistance from the EU.

The next major forum at which the leaders could potentially meet will be the APEC summit in China's Shenzhen on November 18-19. The Kremlin previously reported that the possibility of a trilateral meeting between Putin, Trump, and Chinese President Xi Jinping had been discussed. However, preparations have not yet begun: the Russian Foreign Ministry emphasized that the agenda and possible outcome of such a meeting must first be determined. Another opportunity will arise on December 14-15 at the G20 summit in Miami. The US has invited Putin to attend. The Kremlin welcomed this move, stating that the details are being worked out via diplomatic channels.

Izvestia: Ukraine to spend EU’s 90-billion-euro loan before end of 2027

The EU is considering approving a new loan to Ukraine using frozen Russian assets. This will be necessary if Kiev spends the previously allocated 90-billion-euro loan ahead of schedule. Earlier, Zelensky requested an additional $27 billion in funding from the EU. Brussels may allocate these funds from the already approved loan ahead of schedule, though in that case, the funds would not last until the end of 2027. In addition, 800 million euros will soon be allocated from the loan to finance civilian needs. Attempts to seize Russian assets may intensify in the coming months because opponents of funding Ukraine may gain ground during elections in Germany, Greece, Spain, and France throughout 2027.

Brussels is looking for a way out of this situation. In particular, it is considering the possibility of using Russia’s frozen assets to continue funding Kiev, Pekka Toveri, head of the EU-Ukraine Parliamentary Association Committee in the European Parliament, told Izvestia. "The EU is working on funding for the period after 2027. Either through frozen Russian assets or in some other form," he noted.

At present, according to official data, Ukraine has already received about 15 billion euros from the 90-billion-euro loan, with most of the funds earmarked for the production of drones, the purchase of interceptor missiles, and the development of the military-industrial complex. In turn, Yegor Sergeyev, a senior researcher at the Institute of International Studies of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), believes that while Brussels will meet Kiev’s new demands, it will not provide the full amount requested. This is necessary both to reach an agreement between the countries and to show the public that the EU has become more cautious against the backdrop of corruption scandals in Ukraine, the expert pointed out.

The EU is already beginning to divide along the lines of support for Ukraine, St. Petersburg State University professor Natalya Yeremina told Izvestia. According to her, EU member states are growing weary of supplying weapons from their own stockpiles, which consume an increasingly significant portion of their budgets. The coming year will be critical for both Ukraine and EU countries in terms of continued funding, Yeremina emphasized.

Vedomosti: Likely duration of US-China trade truce

China and the US have agreed to extend the trade truce until January 10, 2027, in the hope of reaching a more comprehensive deal during that time, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s official state visit to the US. Speaking at an official banquet at the White House, US leader Donald Trump expressed his readiness to work with Beijing to forge a better future for both countries. In response, Xi emphasized his desire to steer the "ship of US-China relations onto a calm course" toward the future.

The Chinese would like to extend the trade truce by one year, until the 21st National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, Alexander Lomanov, head of the Center for Asia-Pacific Studies under the Russian Academy of Sciences’ World Economy and International Relations Institute, told Vedomosti. However, both Xi and the entire Chinese elite have acknowledged that the situation has changed and are ready for a different scenario. Therefore, this source of pressure is no longer as strong for Xi, as he understands that Trump’s actions cannot seriously slow down the Chinese economy and are effective only in the technology sector. However, according to the expert, even here, Beijing holds a trump card in the form of rare earth elements, on which the Americans will remain dependent until roughly the early 2030s. China is ready to respond but will not be the first to escalate the trade conflict.

Extending the truce by only two months may indicate that one of the parties wants to gain additional concessions from the other, Russian International Affairs Council President Dmitry Trenin emphasized. According to him, China’s position is "in principle stronger," while the White House faces a more difficult situation. Moreover, Washington hopes for more productive relations with Beijing, which Trump has not yet achieved. Based on this, Trenin pointed out that China has given the US two months to resolve certain issues to its satisfaction. He added that, in general, time is working against the US: China’s power is growing, even though its foreign policy has not yet been particularly aggressive. However, this does not mean that China is becoming less influential or less interested in the future of the world.

According to Trenin, Russia has "no suspicions whatsoever" about any grand deals between Beijing and Washington behind its back. "I think that here we are confident not so much in China as in our interpretation of China’s interests and American policy. And this suggests that the mini-thaw currently taking place between them is, more likely than not, a short-lived phenomenon," the expert stressed.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Venezuela to complete democratizing country, hold elections

Venezuela’s authorized president Delcy Rodriguez announced during her address to the UN General Assembly plans to finish the country’s democratization process and hold elections. This was one of Washington’s demands to end the pressure on Caracas, which lasted from last summer until the January operation to capture Nicolas Maduro. However, the date of the elections remains unknown.

Viktor Heifets, director of the Ibero-American Studies Center at St. Petersburg State University, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that Rodriguez’s speech did not mention a specific date for the elections. "She said she is ready to ensure Venezuela’s full transition to democracy, but for this transition to be successful, it must be seamless and guarantee the right of all political forces to participate. This is an acknowledgment of the struggle for all that is good against all that is bad. In reality, I don’t think holding elections is part of the Venezuelan leadership’s immediate plans," the expert noted.

Heifets added that Rodriguez’s legitimacy as interim president is currently quite questionable in light of the Venezuelan Constitution, which is why it was necessary to emphasize that elections would take place. "Besides, Rodriguez must be aware that her approval ratings aren’t all that high. If she intends to remain in power and elections are held in the near future, it’s highly likely she won’t win, assuming there’s no election fraud. I think she and her inner circle know this," the expert pointed out. The later these elections take place, the better Rodriguez’s chances of expanding her influence are, Heifetz stressed.

"It’s important to note that Rodriguez’s main source of support is not the local military or ruling party elites, but Trump. No one can say yet how much power the US president will have after the November congressional elections. Perhaps Rodriguez decided to play it safe and declare that, of course, they intend to hold the elections," the expert noted. He recalled that not long ago, opposition politician Maria Corina Machado had stated the need to hold elections no later than 2027, and in this situation, Rodriguez could not stay silent. "But it is unlikely that the authorized president’s statement will lead to the setting of a specific and near-term election date," Heifets emphasized.

Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Rising tanker freight rates’ effect on oil exports

Freight rates for supertankers have surpassed $1.2 million per day, setting an all-time record, media reports say. These are VLCC and ULCC tankers, which can carry 1.5 million barrels of oil or more. This calculation is based on the Middle East-Asia route. Last year, by comparison, the freight rates for such tankers on the same route peaked at $80,000 per day.

These sky-high freight rates are one of the main reasons Russian oil costs more than Brent crude at buyers’ ports. Oil is in short supply, and buyers are unable to force Russian companies to cover all transportation costs. Buyers must shoulder part of the cost themselves. Russian National Energy Security Fund head Konstantin Simonov told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that a significant portion of the so-called discount is actually the cost of freight, plus insurance, services, and trading expenses.

According to DA Consulting CEO Daniil Tyun, record freight rates of $1.2 million per day primarily apply to specific routes. This figure cannot be automatically applied to Russian exports. Nevertheless, the global tanker market is interconnected. When carriers begin to earn exceptionally high revenues on Middle Eastern routes, part of the available fleet is redirected there. As a result, the supply of vessels for other routes, including those to Russia, decreases. Sanctions and longer voyage durations are creating additional pressure, the expert noted.

In addition, rising freight costs are indirectly affecting oil production volumes, energy expert Kirill Rodionov emphasized. Production is already 1.5 million barrels per day below OPEC+ quotas.

It is not increasing, in part due to rising freight costs. Unplanned maintenance at Russian oil refineries has reduced domestic crude processing capacity. In this situation, exporting becomes an option for oil companies to avoid cutting production. This was the case last year; however, high freight costs and shipping restrictions in the Black Sea are now constraining production.