The change came during the summer. At a time when the Union MPs were in their constituencies and experienced the discontent of the base more clearly. The numbers also reflect this mood: a year and a half ago, the Union achieved 28.6 percent in the federal election and Friedrich Merz was a beacon of hope for many.
Currently only 21 percent across Germany would vote for the Union; in the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt it was only 17.2 percent. But it gets even worse: The Chancellor and CDU party leader achieves significantly worse results in surveys than his party. Conclusion: Friedrich Merz is dragging the Union down.
Is it better to replace the chancellor quickly?
This becomes partly existential for the MPs: If the Union only achieved the 17.2 percent in the next federal election that it now has in Saxony-Anhalt, then around 50 to 60 MPs would lose their mandate in the Bundestag.
This does not improve the mood in the group and means that the voices calling for a change of chancellor are becoming louder. The centrifugal forces are getting stronger, say insiders.
A successor favorite in the CDU is Hendrik Wüst. But because he has a state election in North Rhine-Westphalia in April 2027, time pressure is on. If there is a chancellor exchange, then as quickly as possible, is the motto of those who believe that Merz should vacate the position of chancellor and party chairman.
A quick change would have the advantage that Wüst could hand over to a possible successor - the name Nathanael Liminski is always mentioned - at least six months before the state elections.
CSU is still holding back
And CSU boss Markus Söder? Yesterday he said on Bayerischer Rundfunk when asked whether Friedrich Merz was still the right Chancellor: "I am convinced of it, yes."
Voices from the CSU point out that things are going better in Bavaria than in the federal government and that we should think carefully about whether we seriously want to move to Berlin and thus become the captain of a ship in difficult waters.
In addition, many CDU MPs reject a Chancellor Söder and also point out that the self-confident Bavarian Prime Minister would not be enforceable either in the northern federal states or with the coalition partner SPD.
The CSU is partially sitting back and waiting. The smaller Union party points out that the question of whether Merz is still the right person to lead the government must be clarified by the CDU chancellor's party. This is the line that is being spread from party leadership circles.
However, this line should not be confused with calmness or relaxation. Above all, people should avoid interfering in the internal affairs of the CDU.
CDU threatens to achieve single-digit result again after 75 years
The Chancellor is unpopular, the poll numbers are lousy, and there is no trend reversal in sight. The mood in the Union parties is bad and confidence in the man at the top has been significantly damaged.
The situation in the Union faction after last week was described as “dramatic” and at “absolute low point” in an interview under the seal of anonymity. The concern that the Union with Merz will no longer be able to get out of the polls at the federal level has already become a conviction for some of the CDU and CSU in the Bundestag.
Of course, this has to do with the election disaster in Saxony-Anhalt - with the victory of the AfD and the historically poor CDU result of 17.2 percent. And that will most likely be significantly undercut again next Sunday in the election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The CDU is threatened with a single-digit result there. The last time this happened in Bremen was 75 years ago.
But there is also the Chancellor's behavior in the days that followed. His speech in the Bundestag general debate a few days ago, when he declared that the AfD had not achieved its election goal, is viewed by many in the joint CDU and CSU faction as a failure - the word "embarrassing" is also used in this context.
But there is also support for Merz
Despite all the criticism of the Chancellor: The Union is not a revolutionary association. And so Merz now also receives support from his own party. Key people in the Union describe a proposed minority government as a “Pandora’s box” or simply consider this idea to be “madness”.
Söder emphasizes Merz's competence as foreign chancellor and says it would also be "a real problem" internationally if Germany were to falter. He expects support for the Federal Chancellor, especially after the elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
The CDU's new first parliamentary managing director, Catarina dos Santos-Wintz, says: "As a government faction, we have responsibility for this country. We must now use our majority in the German Bundestag to resolutely implement the necessary reforms."
Söder's time game?
The CDU Presidium will meet for an emergency meeting on Sunday afternoon. Many people in the party expect the prime ministers, for example, to put pressure on Merz. But will it happen like that?
In any case, Söder's current support for Merz is viewed more as a "time game" by Merz's possible successor, because the longer the Chancellor stays in office, the more difficult it will be for Hendrik Wüst to take over the job and thus more promising for Markus Söder.
