Intesa Sanpaolo increases its offer for Monte dei Paschi after the rejection of the defense plan

After Intesa Sanpaolo's push to bring home the public purchase and exchange offer for Monte dei Paschi di Siena, the word goes to the market. The group led by Carlo Messina, with an extraordinary board of directors, surprisingly announced an increase of 25 cents on the cash component of the takeover bid if the Siena partners reject the entire defensive plan put in place by Luigi Lovaglio. A move on which there are still no official reactions from Monte but which will probably arrive in the next few hours.

Meanwhile, the first orientations of the members are recorded. Delfin, the holding company of the Del Vecchio family which holds 17.5%, after Intesa's announcement, brought together the board of directors who would have expressed their opinion in favor of the Ca' de Sass takeover bid.

The initiative of the bank led by Carlo Messina is aimed at providing clarity in view of the October 29 meeting of Mps, when the shareholders will have to express their opinion on the green light for the two public takeover offers on Banco Bpm and Banca Generali, on the transfer to Monte of the share of Generali held by Mediobanca, and on the merger of the Piazzetta Cuccia institution. An appointment which, according to the line emerging from the Intesa council, will be a "real referendum".

On the one hand the "solidity and attractiveness of the takeover bid, based on a clear industrial rationale, on a proven ability to execute and on a credible prospect of creating sustainable value for shareholders", and on the other the two offers announced by Siena with a "particularly complex structure" and with a "difficult evaluation of each of them by the shareholders of Monte, Piazza Meda and Banca Generali".

And it is looking at the end of October that the Intesa board decided to put down on paper its considerations on the ops announced by MPS and what the consequences could be in the event of approval. Among these is the risk to Generali's independence, "guaranteed by Mediobanca for decades". In the event that shareholders give the green light to the plan put in place by Lovaglio, Messina's offer will become "definitively ineffective".

An intense period of deadlines will begin tomorrow. Keep an eye on the stock market's reaction to Intesa's move. Another stage will be the voting indications of the proxy advisors: ISS and Glass Lewis in view of the Monte assembly. A crucial issue because large investors are unlikely to deviate from the suggestions provided. Siena has a shareholder base that includes various funds. These include BlackRock with almost 5% of the bank, Vanguard (3.1%), Norges (3%) and Amundi (1.1%). Among the large Italian partners, the position of the Caltagirone group (13.5%) could arrive soon. However, the Mef will not be present at the Siena meeting, having repeatedly reiterated that it will not deposit its 4.9 percent.

Ca' de Sass, on the other hand, is struggling with completing the authorization process with the ECB's decision expected between mid-end of October. Immediately afterwards, the offer will arrive at Consob, with the possibility of starting it at the end of November. Then there will be the Antitrust decisions which should arrive at the end of November, and that of the golden power to follow. Intesa also pays great attention to the territory of Siena and the whole of Tuscany. The group underlines that its offer does not have the logic of a "stew" but, on the contrary, the operation lays the foundations for making Monte the fulcrum of a "reference banking hub, with dimensions significantly larger than the current ones".