Iran's possible plans to attack US military assets in Europe are seen as part of Tehran's strategy to expand the conflict. According to sources, the size and nature of Iran's retaliation will depend on the steps taken by the United States. Tehran plans to escalate the conflict beyond its Middle East borders if Trump carries out his previous threats against Iranian infrastructure in response to ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
A source close to Tehran's negotiations said that the Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus (GCASC) is also considered as a possible target in case of a possible military operation by the USA. Allegations that Iran is planning to expand the war came to the fore simultaneously with reports that the United States is considering greatly reducing its military presence in the Gulf countries. Instead of rebuilding bases heavily damaged by Iran's missile attacks, the US Department of Defense (Pentagon) discussed shifting its military presence to the western and southern regions, where it would have more time to intercept the missiles.
At least 17 soldiers lost their lives in Iran's attacks on US bases in the region.
IRAN MAY SHOOT SOFIA
According to the Financial Times, based on sources close to Iran, the Tehran administration is evaluating options to attack American military assets in Europe if the USA escalates the conflict. Iranian forces examined US facilities in Southeastern Europe, especially the Bezmer air base in Bulgaria, as potential targets. The fact that the Sofia administration recently allowed US refueling planes to use this base has increased the strategic importance of the facility.
Bezmer air base in Bulgaria is a critical logistics center for US operations in the region. Iran's targeting of this facility could directly threaten US supply lines in Europe. British bases in Cyprus are of strategic importance for military operations in the Eastern Mediterranean. Possible attacks by Iran against these regions may increase tensions on NATO's southern flank.
The US keeps its long-range bombers and some F-16s in Sofia.
GKRY POSSIBLE TARGET
Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus is also among Iran's possible targets. British military facilities on the island were attacked by a drone earlier this year. Iranian planners are also exploring methods of targeting undersea fiber optic cables passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Damage to these cables could seriously impact the global communications infrastructure.
It remains unclear how the USA will respond to these plans of Iran. The Pentagon faces the need to increase the security of its bases in Europe. These moves by Iran may cause the United States to reconsider its military stance in Europe and its coordination with NATO.
Akrotiri military base belonging to the United Kingdom in the Greek Cypriot Administration of Cyprus
DISCUSSION WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GULF IN THE PENTAGON
According to Washington Post (WP) news, the Pentagon is considering reducing the US military presence in the Gulf after the Iran war ends. The US Department of Defense is reviewing its military presence in the Middle East, according to sources familiar with the matter. One key area under consideration is the decision to withdraw troops from major overseas military bases in the Persian Gulf, which have been badly damaged by Iranian attacks for months. The damage to these facilities led the Pentagon to re-evaluate its presence in the region.
The Pentagon has signaled that it may not rebuild its bases to where they were before the conflict. The assessment is being conducted by the Pentagon's policy office. However, a senior Pentagon official said that the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the US Central Command (CENTCOM) were also examining the issue. The official noted that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has not yet ordered a formal review of the US posture in the region, calling the analysis "cautious planning."
US PRESENCE IN THE GULF
CENTCOM, which manages US military operations in the Middle East, normally deploys around 40 thousand soldiers to approximately 20 locations in a 2,400-kilometer area stretching from Jordan to Oman. Since the beginning of this year, the US military has shipped warships, warplanes, air defense systems and other military equipment to the region. The USA's largest and most permanent bases in the Middle East are located in the Persian Gulf; Bahrain hosts the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet, while other countries such as Kuwait host elements of the Army and Air Forces.
Countries in the Gulf have relied on the United States for defense for decades. A regional withdrawal could make these states vulnerable to Iranian attacks. It may take months or even years to invest in local capacities or partner with other powers to compensate for this shortfall. The issue is likely to intensify debate within the administration, people familiar with the Pentagon's analysis said.
"THE WAR REVEALED THE VULNERABILITY OF THE USA"
In the attack on Shuayba Port in Kuwait in March, 6 US soldiers lost their lives and more than 200 US facilities were damaged or destroyed during the conflict. While defending its personnel in the region, the U.S. military also deployed more than 1,000 advanced air defense missiles and depleted the Pentagon's stockpile of Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missiles.
"The war really exposed the fragility of US forces in the region," former US diplomat Michael Ratney said in his assessment of CENTCOM's losses.
Arguing that moving soldiers and equipment further west, to Jordan, Israel or the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia, could relieve the pressure to some extent, the expert also stated that this additional distance is not "a perfect solution to this problem." Iran has already demonstrated that it can strike distant targets in Jordan and Israel; Last month, 4 US soldiers lost their lives in Iran's attack on Jordan.
FUTURE PLANS OF THE USA
The Pentagon has publicly stated that the cost of the war will reach approximately $37.5 billion by the end of September, but this figure does not include the money needed to rebuild bases in the region. Jules Hurst, chief financial officer of the U.S. Department of Defense, told the Senate in May that the reason reconstruction costs were not taken into account was because the administration had not yet decided how to recover from the damage. In April, the center-right American Enterprise Institute estimated that repairing the targeted US bases would cost $5 billion.
