Iran says 'illegal routes' in Hormuz to be blocked
Quick Look
Iran's Revolutionary Guards announced plans to close illegal transit routes in the Strait of Hormuz used for oil smuggling, asserting full control over the waterway and stating the situation will continue until Iran's demands are met, amid conflicting reports on regional oil export levels.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil exports, with Iran asserting sovereignty while accusing smugglers of using illicit routes. Recent data shows fluctuating oil flow levels amid regional tensions.
Synopsis
Iran's Revolutionary Guards have announced intentions to close illegal transit routes in the Strait of Hormuz. These routes allegedly facilitate oil smuggling operations and affect regional oil exports. Iranian officials maintain that the Islamic Republic has full control over this vital waterway. The situation will persist until Iran's demands are met, according to military advisers.
Dubai: Transit routes in the Strait of Hormuz deemed illegal by Iran will soon be closed, an adviser to the Revolutionary Guards' Commander told the semi-official Fars News Agency on Wednesday, referring to the southern pathway hugging Oman's coast.
Mohammadreza Naqdi said these "few routes" had been created by blasting and damaging some of the rocky passages in the strategic waterway and were used by "small boats smuggling oil and transferring it to tankers", challenging the narrative that Gulf oil exports are regaining pre-war levels.
"The Strait of Hormuz is closed, and the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran have full control over it. This situation will continue until Iran's legitimate demands are met," he added.
A seven-day moving average for crude exports from the region was 18.3 million barrels per day on September 30, provisional data from Kpler showed, with volumes topping pre-war levels on 14 days in September.
That included Gulf oil sent via Hormuz, the Red Sea, and from terminals and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.
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The IRGC has consistently denied that seaborne crude flows in the strait are rebounding thanks to US Navy help, with another IRGC adviser Majid Mirahmadi saying on Thursday that a daily average of 10 ships transit the waterway against an average of 125 before the war which started on February 28, when the US and Israel killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a Tehran airstrike.
Despite growing oil flows in September, Iranian attacks on tankers and logistical constraints have persisted and call into question whether higher flows can be sustained durably.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Iran will enforce closure of the alleged smuggling routes in the Strait of Hormuz within the next two weeks.
Likely · Within weeks
Regional oil export volumes will show measurable disruption if Iran proceeds with route closures.
Possible · Within weeks
Open Questions
- What specific demands must Iran meet for the situation to end?
- How will the closure of smuggling routes be enforced?
- What is the actual volume of oil being smuggled via these routes?
- How will neighboring states respond to Iran's assertions of control?
