Israel's President Herzog has commissioned opposition politician Gadi Eisenkot to form a government. This now has three options, each of which contains different risks.
On Sunday, Israel's President commissioned Gadi Eisenkot to form a government. His camp did not receive a majority in the October 27 election, but consultations show that a majority of MPs support him.
Eisenkot can now hold coalition negotiations for a maximum of 42 days. If he fails, Benjamin Netanyahu could be given the task of forming a government. Eisenkot has already formulated four conditions for his coalition. However, they make negotiations considerably more difficult. Eisenkot has three options: a coalition with the Arab parties, a government with the ultra-Orthodox or a unity government with Netanyahu. Each option presents different challenges.
Tel Aviv. After the parliamentary election on October 27th did not produce a clear winner, Israel's President Isaac Herzog commissioned Gadi Eisenkot to form a government on Sunday. At the accompanying ceremony in Jerusalem, Herzog spoke of “immense challenges”.
He mentioned the threat from Iran, the implementation of the peace plan for the Gaza Strip and the draft issue, but also the defense against sanctions and diplomatic threats as well as dealing with “a new political situation” in the USA. “The State of Israel needs a stable government that can meet these needs in the long term,” he said.
Eisenkot now has 28 days to forge a coalition. Herzog can extend this period by up to 14 days. The President had previously received all political groups for two days. 67 of the 120 designated MPs recommended Eisenkot as head of government, while only 46 were in favor of Netanyahu. The seven-seat ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism (VTJ) party made no recommendation.
If Eisenkot fails to form a coalition during this time, Herzog is likely to appoint incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu next. Despite the popularity, it will be difficult for Eisenkot to find a stable majority. “We are close to a point from which there is no turning back for the State of Israel,” said Eisenkot after handing over the mandate. “This will require creative and unconventional political steps.”
According to the election results, Netanyahu's previous government camp is ahead with 53 seats. It consists of the Likud, the strongest party with 27 seats, the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas (six seats) and VTJ (seven) as well as the right-wing extremist settler parties Religious Zionism of Bezalel Smotrich and Otzma Yehudit of Itamar Ben-Gvir with a total of 13 seats.
Eisenkot's opposition camp, on the other hand, only got 48 seats. It consists of four parties that are primarily united by the goal of replacing Netanyahu: Yashar (“straightforward”) promotes a moderate, security-oriented policy, wants to introduce general conscription and set up a commission of inquiry into the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. It became the second strongest party with 21 seats. Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid's B'Yachad alliance has twelve seats, while Avigdor Liberman's secular Yisrael Beitenu party has seven. The left wing is formed by HaDemocratim around Yair Golan with eight seats.
Eisenkot was still the first to be tasked with forming a government because the support of the Arab parties was helping him move forward. Ra’am and HaReshima HaMeshutefet (Joint List) together have 19 seats. Both want to prevent Netanyahu from being in office again. This results in the 67 recommendations. 61 seats are needed for a government majority.
Although so many MPs spoke out in favor of Eisenkot, forming a government will be difficult. That's because of the four conditions that Eisenkot reiterated for joining his government on Sunday: recognition of Israel as a Jewish, democratic and liberal state with equal rights; commitment to the values of the Declaration of Independence; Compulsory service for all citizens, military or civilian; Designating Hamas as a terrorist organization and dismantling its military capabilities and government structures in the Gaza Strip.
The ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and VTJ reject conscription on religious grounds. When asked by Herzog during Thursday's consultations, the Arab parties refused to describe Hamas as a terrorist organization. Even Mansour Abbas, head of Ra'am, who is considered more moderate than the Joint List and was the first Arab party representative to be part of a government in 2021, called for Hamas to be disarmed, but rejected the classification. He cited safety concerns for himself and his family.
Because of the conditions, only 48 MPs actually want to govern with iron shit. “The opposition now has to compromise somewhere,” says Michael Rimmel, head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation’s office in Israel. “And every step will cost them their political credibility.” Specifically, Eisenkot now has three options.
Eisenkot could reduce his conditions so much that the Arab parties would form a coalition with him. Rimmel believes that is almost impossible. The security policy interests of the former army chief and the Arab MPs are too far apart. It is more conceivable that the Arab parties would tolerate this. In the opposition camp, only the HaDemocratim party was willing to form such a coalition.
Eisenkot could form a government supported or tolerated by the ultra-Orthodox. This alliance was considered unthinkable before the elections. Israel expert Rimmel interprets the fact that the VTJ abstained from the consultations as a signal that the party is breaking away from Netanyahu. The VTJ has been part of his government camp since 2009.
Channel 12 television quoted a source from the Council of Torah Sages: The second ultra-Orthodox party Shas will not vote against a joint government with Eisenkot if the spiritual leader of the VTJ agrees. However, Netanyahu should put massive pressure on the ultra-Orthodox to prevent this alliance.
So far, only Avigdor Liberman from the opposition camp has expressed openness to cooperation with the ultra-Orthodox parties. He said on Friday that he was ready for a coalition, including “painful compromises” on military service. Everything must be done to form a coalition of 61 MPs, “without the Joint List and Ra’am”.
On Sunday he defended this stance: “In the situation that has arisen, there is no way around making difficult decisions to prevent new elections and put an end to the Netanyahu era.” Liberman has been fighting for years against the exemption from military service for the ultra-Orthodox. He has been a member of the Knesset almost continuously since 1999 and has served as foreign, defense and finance ministers.
Mathematically, this would result in a possible coalition: Eisenkot's camp with 48 seats, the VTJ with seven and the toleration of the six Shas MPs would result in 61 seats. Rimmel believes this option is realistic, even if the resulting government might not last long. He sees a possible expiry date at the end of March next year, when the budget has to be decided. The ultra-Orthodox parties sometimes have significantly different views on subsidies than the opposition bloc, including on the subject of conscription into the army. If a common budget is not achieved, the government automatically dissolves according to Israel's basic law and new elections are held.
The unity government remains with Netanyahu. The heads of the two largest factions, Netanyahu's Likud and Eisenkot's Yashar, would take turns as head of government after a certain period of time. Netanyahu promoted this solution in a video message on Saturday, but only with the inclusion of all of his previous allies. A government with Arab support would “destroy the state from within,” he warned. The fire, currently seen on the streets of European cities such as Paris and Brussels, will spread to Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, Haifa and the rest of Israel. “With such a government, Israel simply will not survive.”
Israel expert Rimmel interprets the video message as a sign that Netanyahu believes it is realistic for Eisenkot to form a coalition without him. However, the opposition camp has ruled out working with Netanyahu. It distrusts him and refers to 2020: Back then, Benny Gantz formed a unity government with Netanyahu. The alliance collapsed over a budget dispute even before Gantz became head of government.
According to Rimmel, how much power Eisenkot actually has will be shown on Tuesday in the inaugural session of the Knesset. The opposition has announced that it will vote out parliament speaker Amir Ohana, a confidant of Netanyahu, and appoint former prime minister Yair Lapid as his successor. Netanyahu is unlikely to accept such an outcome. “This will show who will set the political tone after the election, Eisenkot or Netanyahu,” says Rimmel. “We are currently experiencing the final phase of Netanyahu, but this is not the end of his political career.”
