Israel election: When will government be formed, who will lead it?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has lost his coalition’s parliamentary majority following legislative elections on October 27.

But a bloc of Jewish parties opposing Netanyahu also failed to win a majority in the 120-seat Knesset, leaving Israel without a clear path to a new government.

What’s ahead is likely weeks of political wrangling as Israel’s disparate factions weigh possible governing arrangements, including a unity government bringing rival factions together or a minority government reliant on outside support. If they fail to reach an agreement, Israel could head back to the polls.

Here’s what you should know:

What are the final results of Israel’s elections?

The pro-Netanyahu coalition won 53 seats:

Likud – 27

United Torah Judaism – 7

Otzma Yehudit – 7

Shas – 6

Religious Zionism – 6

A bloc of Jewish parties opposing Netanyahu won 48 seats:

Yashar – 21

B’Yachad – 12

The Democrats – 8

Yisrael Beytenu – 7

Arab-led parties won 19 seats:

Joint List – 11

Ra’am – 8

That leaves all existing blocs short of the 61 seats needed for a majority in the Knesset, meaning some parties would have to realign or join forces across bloc lines to form a new government.

What happens next?

Israel’s election results must be officially certified and presented to President Isaac Herzog by November 4.

The new Knesset is scheduled to be sworn in on November 10.

Herzog must task one incoming Knesset member with forming a new government by November 11. He is expected to make his decision with input from party leaders, selecting the candidate he believes has the best chance of building a coalition.

The candidate commissioned by Herzog has 28 days to form a coalition, with a possible extension of 14 days.

Who will Herzog nominate first to form a government?

He has not said yet, but the most likely candidates are Netanyahu or former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot, whose Yashar party received the most votes in the opposition bloc.

According to Israel’s Yedioth Ahronoth media, Eisenkot may have an edge over Netanyahu as some Arab-led parties consider endorsing him in a bid to oust Netanyahu.

Herzog, for his part, has urged Israeli politicians to move away from rigid partisan stances and look for “creative solutions” that will lead to a new government and avoid a second round of elections.

Before the election, Herzog said he would do everything he could to spare the country another election cycle, even if that means pressing for a national unity government that brings together rivals Netanyahu and Eisenkot.

Could the opposition bloc join forces with Arab-led parties?

It is unclear.

Eisenkot and other opposition leaders have previously ruled out partnering with the Arab-led parties.

Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak, however, has said he believes they “can change their mind”, arguing that Netanyahu would do in their position.

“If Netanyahu had a similar problem, he would immediately invite Mansour Abbas”, the leader of Ra’am and “give him the role of a minister of interior”, Barak told France 24 on Friday.

Abbas himself has signalled a willingness to work the opposition camp, saying Eisenkot’s conditions would not pose an obstacle for his party, according to Israel’s Channel 12.

Yousef Jabareen from the Arab-led Joint List has also said that his party is ready for the “ousting of the Netanyahu government”.

“The change comes through Jewish-Arab partnership, a true and equal partnership,” he wrote on X.

Even if Arab-led parties do not formally join the opposition’s coalition, they could prop it up from outside by helping it pass a confidence vote in the Knesset.

Raluca Ganea, co-founder of Israeli civil society group Zazim, told Al Jazeera that a coalition between the opposition bloc and the Arab-led parties representing the Palestinian citizens of Israel “is the only path forward for Israeli democracy as a whole”.

What happens if no one can form a government?

If Herzog’s first candidate fails to form a government within the 42 days, the Israeli president has the option of asking another Knesset member to try to do so within 28 days. If that candidate also fails, a majority of Knesset members could put forward a third candidate, who would have a final 14 days to try to assemble one.

Even without a coalition commanding at least 61 seats, a candidate could still try to form a minority government by relying on outside support from smaller parties, including Arab-led parties, or negotiate a power-sharing arrangement with alternating prime ministers.

If none of these options succeed and deadlock persists, the Knesset would be formally dissolved, and Israelis would return to the polls for another round of elections.

Those elections would have to be called within 90 days.

Who is in charge in the meantime?

Netanyahu stays on as caretaker prime minister until a new government is formed.

If the process drags out, that could leave Israel’s longest-serving prime minister in power for months more, even if he ultimately fails to become part of the next governing coalition.