A majority of the designated MPs recommend Gadi Eisenkot. However, his camp only has 48 of the 120 seats - and a coalition with the Arab parties is almost impossible. Three paths emerge.
After two days of consultations, President Herzog announced: 67 of the 120 designated MPs recommend Gadi Eisenkot as head of government, only 46 recommend incumbent Netanyahu. On Sunday, Herzog wants to appoint a parliamentary group leader.
Eisenkot's camp has 48 mandates, Netanyahu's previous coalition has 53, the Arab parties have 19. The 67 recommendations result from 48 plus 19, but the Arab parties do not want to enter a coalition. 61 seats are needed for a government majority.
Eisenkot's camp consists of four parties that are primarily united by the goal of replacing Netanyahu.
The most likely scenario is Eisenkot's minority government with 48 seats, relying on Arab votes from outside.
The summary was created and editorially checked using AI.
Jerusalem. After the parliamentary elections on October 27th without a clear winner, Gadi Eisenkot, head of the opposition Yashar party, has the best prospects of forming a government.
President Isaak Herzog received all parliamentary groups for two days and announced the result on Thursday night: 67 of the 120 designated members of the next Knesset recommended Eisenkot as head of government - the highest number of recommendations for a candidate since 2015.
Only 46 voted for incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu. On Sunday, Herzog wants to officially commission a parliamentary group leader to form a government; beforehand, he will speak to the party leaders again.
Eisenkot does not have a government majority. The Central Election Committee confirmed the election results and handed them over to Herzog. Accordingly, Netanyahu's current coalition has 53 seats, Eisenkot's camp has 48 and the two Arab parties together have 19. 61 seats are needed for a government majority. The 67 recommendations result from 48 plus 19. The strongest party is Netanyahu's Likud with 27 seats, Eisenkot's Yashar follows with 21.
This does not mean the end of Netanyahu's term in office, because recommendations do not automatically become a viable coalition. Three paths emerge.
According to the consultations, the most likely scenario is Eisenkot's minority government with 48 seats, supported from outside with votes from the Arab camp. Likud and many demonstrators are calling for a unity government with changing leadership, but the opposition rejects it. A coalition with the Arab parties is almost impossible.
Former Chief of General Staff Eisenkot leads a camp of four parties that are primarily united by the goal of replacing Netanyahu. His Yashar (“straightforward”) party has 21 seats. She promotes a security-oriented, moderate policy, wants general conscription and calls for a commission of inquiry into the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023.
B’Yachad (“Together”) is the alliance of former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, head of the center party Yesh Atid. It has twelve seats and also wants conscription, with harsh punishments for those who refuse.
Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beitenu, with seven seats, primarily represents Russian-speaking Israelis. The party is strictly secular, takes a hard line against Palestinians and terrorism and has been calling for more military service from ultra-Orthodox for years.
HaDemocratim under Yair Golan is an alliance of the Labor Party and Meretz and forms the left wing. She wants to stop the government's judicial reform and have Netanyahu and his ministers investigated and prosecuted over October 7th.
Netanyahu's previous camp
Netanyahu's previous coalition has 53 seats: Likud 27, the ultra-Orthodox Shas 6, United Torah Judaism 7. The remaining 13 are held by the parties of Bezalel Smotrich (Religious Zionism) and Itamar Ben-Gvir (Otzma Yehudit).
The seven representatives of United Torah Judaism refused to endorse Netanyahu, even though they had been part of his camp since 2009. This means that only 46 MPs from his coalition instead of the 53 recommend the incumbent.
But the party also did not want to support Eisenkot: his camp has announced a tough course against conscientious objectors and social cuts in their community. It was the only faction to abstain. This indicates a willingness to support a government led by the opposition.
The Arab parties
The explicit support of the Arab parties for Eisenkot was surprising. Ra'am around Mansour Abbas is religiously and socially conservative; her voters are primarily Bedouins in the Galilee and the Negev. She was already in government in 2021.
The more radical alliance HaReshima HaMeshutefet (“The Joint List”) of the communist Hadash, the nationalist Balad and the secular Ta’al also spoke out in favor of Eisenkot. Alliance leader Yousef Jabareen said: “It is a choice between bad and even worse.” But it is the only way to replace the “racist government” of Netanyahu and his right-wing extremist partners Smotrich and Ben-Gvir.
This does not mean joining a coalition, emphasized Jabareen. Eisenkot's camp and the Arab parties primarily divide on security policy issues: all Arab faction leaders refuse to describe Hamas as a terrorist organization. Although Abbas called for Hamas to be disarmed, he rejected the classification, citing security concerns for himself and his family. He also complained that his party had to repeatedly undergo “loyalty tests”. This causes unease among the Jewish majority.
Constellations for forming a government
A coalition between Eisenkot's camp and the Arab parties is conceivable. However, it is considered almost impossible. Last week, Eisenkot listed four conditions that a partner must meet to join a government he leads, including classifying Hamas as a terrorist organization. Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman, two possible coalition partners, also reject an alliance with the Arab parties. Only HaDemocratim was open to it.
Second, a minority government. Eisenkot could govern with the 48 mandates of his camp and rely on votes from the Arab camp from outside parliament. There have been several such governments in Israel, but this would be the first that did not have a majority from the time it was sworn in. According to the consultations, it is considered the most likely route.
It is not certain: Liberman, whose party holds seven of the camp's 48 seats, said on October 29 that he also rejects indirect support from parties with which he does not work. He does not want to work with Netanyahu, the ultra-Orthodox parties or the Arab MP Ahmad Tibi.
Third, a unity government. More than a hundred demonstrators demanded exactly that in front of the president's residence. In this constellation, the heads of the two largest factions, Netanyahu's Likud and Eisenkot's Yashar, would take turns in the office of head of government after a certain period of time.
Prior to the election, Herzog and the U.S. government reportedly advocated for this option. Neither of them has commented publicly since the election. In the talks with Herzog, the Likud advocated a “broad national government” of Jewish-Zionist parties. Education Minister Yoav Kisch accused the opposition of boycotting the Likud, while Transport Minister Miri Regev called Eisenkot's camp the “disaster bloc”.
The opposition rejects this. She fears being deceived by Netanyahu again and refers to 2020: At that time, Benny Gantz, like Eisenkot, a former army chief, formed a unity government with Netanyahu. The alliance collapsed in December 2020 due to a budget dispute, even before Gantz became head of government.
