Israel, at the halfway point neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot have a majority: the scenarios

A first significant fact of these elections is the historic and unequivocal result achieved by the Arab parties front, with the Joint List (a grouping of three factions) destined to gain, according to projections, 11 seats and Mansour Abbas's Ra'am another 7. The total of 18 seats is almost double the current ones.

Another central data is that of turnout. Israeli voters flocked to the polls to choose the country's future, despite unfavorable conditions: a flood in the southern territories, roads closed due to bad weather, a lightning storm in the center, heavy rain in Jerusalem. Voter turnout reached 77.7%, the highest figure recorded since 2001. In total, 5,695,682 voters voted, 7.1% more than in the previous elections.

The government's tension over the elections resulted in the avalanche of posts published on social media by Netanyahu who, as he already did in 2022, raised the alarm: "They are trying to steal the elections from us. Higher-than-normal voter turnout in the left's strongholds. It's a choice between the right and Palestine. Right-wing voters, it's an emergency! Go and vote for the Likud immediately!", he wrote. He then cited the arrest of three members of the Arab Ra'am party who had envelopes with cash to influence the vote. And again: "You have been warned: the turnout among Arab voters in the South is enormously higher than that of Jews, you must go and vote! Bring your grandmother, your aunt, your neighbor, no sea or barbecue today", he added. The Likud then asked for an extension of voting hours, but the Election Commission rejected the petition.

At the moment, no one seems to have the numbers in hand to form a solid majority. Eisenkot's bloc, being ahead of Netanyahu's, would not be able to do it alone. The seats won by the Arab parties could prove decisive in allowing the opposition to form a government. However, it remains to be seen who would be willing to support Eisenkot, and under what conditions.

When the official results are in, the ball will pass into the hands of President Isaac Herzog, who will consult the parties and entrust the job to the candidate he deems most capable of forming a majority. The attempt can take weeks. In the meantime, Netanyahu remains interim prime minister. If it is possible to form a government, it will then be necessary to gain the trust of the Knesset which, being a simple majority (therefore of those present to vote), could also result in a minority government.