[ITmedia Enterprise] AI won't take away jobs, but they won't be created - Gartner predicts employment in 2030

Gartner predicts that AI will create 10.6 million jobs and eliminate 8.9 million jobs globally by 2030, resulting in a net gain of 1.7 million jobs.

Helen Poitevin, Gartner's Distinguished Vice President Analyst, said:

“Organizations that are furthest ahead in implementing AI see it not as a replacement for labor, but as a catalyst for restructuring operations and rebalancing the capabilities of labor and technology to compete in changing markets. These organizations are ensuring that the economic value of AI extends beyond labor replacement.”

A distinctive feature of the forecast is that it shows ``deferred employment'' in addition to job losses. Gartner estimates that by 2026, AI will eliminate 2.2 million jobs and create 1.6 million jobs. An equally significant impact was the decision by management to postpone the creation and hiring of 1.3 million positions. Gartner estimates that by 2030, a total of 5 million people will experience hiring delays as executives and IT leaders postpone creating new positions.

"Jobs deferred are not the same as jobs lost; they just aren't created," said John Lovelock, distinguished vice president analyst and chief of research at Gartner.

Regarding the scale of job loss, Gartner predicts that by 2030, 0.4% to 1.8% of workers will experience job loss directly due to AI. Meanwhile, by 2030, more than 20% of workers (435.5 million people worldwide) will have to adapt to changes in the nature of their work, the way they perform their jobs, and the scope of their responsibilities.

How does the impact vary by industry?

Gartner breaks down the employment changes related to AI into three industry groups:

Mr. Poitevin commented on the differences between industries as follows:

"The impact of AI on employment will be uneven across regions, roles, and industries. The worst mistake executives and IT leaders can make is applying lessons from one industry or role to another, which can lead to poor judgment and missed goals. Each industry has unique challenges and risks that business leaders must understand and address."