Kalshi Refuses to Offer Bet on Supreme Court Hearing Its Own Regulatory Case

Kalshi won’t let users bet whether the Supreme Court will hear a case that could upend the prediction market’s regulatory future, a spokesperson for the company claims.

The revelation comes nearly a day after New Jersey officials asked the Supreme Court to intervene in a fight between the prediction market and state gambling regulators. States such as New Jersey believe Kalshi should follow their laws governing sports betting, but prediction markets, backed by the Trump administration, believe it should follow federal law.

Although Kalshi users can bet on everything from the outcome of presidential elections to the number of goals scored in a sports game to the exact words an official will say during a press conference – the prediction market is drawing a line on the case.

A spokesperson told Barron’s that the platform will not offer a prediction market on whether the Supreme Court will hear the case or the outcome of that decision in that case because Kalshi is one of the parties involved.

Actions by Kalshi’s legal team could affect the outcome of the market, and Kalshi does not want to list a market that the firm itself could influence, the spokesperson told Barron’s.

While the case is between New Jersey officials and Kalshi, it could have consequences for other prediction markets, such as Polymarket – which is facing similar lawsuits.

Polymarket has not said whether or not it will list event contracts related to the case.

The Independent has asked Kalshi and Polymarket for comment.

Prediction markets have become an increasingly popular way for people – especially young people – to wager on a host of sports, politics and other events. The platforms allow users to buy and sell event contracts based on whether a future outcome could occur. Unlike traditional gambling, the platforms match buyers and sellers rather than taking the opposite side of a bet.

Polymarket and Kalshi cemented themselves as platforms here to stay during the 2024 presidential election cycle, when they were used to gauge the outcome of the election.

The platforms have received backing from President Donald Trump and are currently being regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

But for months, states – led by both Republicans and Democrats – have brought legal challenges against prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket alleging that the companies are subject to state sports betting laws.

New Jersey officials escalated the legal battle Wednesday, asking the Supreme Court to weigh in on lower courts’ split decision.

In April, the Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in favor of Kalshi. But last week, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals issued an opposite opinion in a case involving Nevada.

“That split has tremendous importance, as it will determine whether a multi-billion-dollar gaming industry can suddenly operate free from state sportsgaming laws,” New Jersey officials wrote in their writ of certiorari Wednesday.

They added: “States have always maintained the primary police powers for health and safety matters, including for gambling.”

Kalshi Spokesperson Dani Lever told NPR that the company disagreed with New Jersey’s filing and is confident in the lower-court rulings that supported the prediction market.

"Kalshi is an open, nationwide financial exchange. It cannot be regulated by 50 different regulators," Lever said. "We remain confident in the lower courts' rulings, and nothing in New Jersey's filing today changes our view."