Battle for the transport of the future: autonomous vehicles and public transport

How are we traveling tomorrow? This question concerns travelers and transport providers alike. The only thing that is relatively certain is that it is significantly different than before. Just like the railway 200 years ago, autonomous vehicles on the road could bring about a turning point for the transport sector. Also for established structures such as public train and bus transport. Because why depend on an annoying timetable or be dropped off far from your actual destination when there is another way, namely flexible and individual: When customers think about this, the answer almost seems predetermined.

The battle for the transport of the future is on. Not least with new plans from American providers to shake up the German market in the coming year. Under the heading “Hello Munich,” the Alphabet/Google subsidiary Waymo announced a month ago that it would lay the foundation for the launch of its fully autonomous driving service here. The first cars will initially be driven manually through the Bavarian capital. The company plans to make the ride service available to the public at the end of 2027. Uber has been active in autonomous testing in Germany for some time.

The established public transport providers are alarmed. “This is a decisive turning point that we must actively shape so that the benefits of the technology for society as a whole come to fruition,” says the CEO of the rail subsidiary DB Regio, Harmen van Zijderveld, in an interview with the F.A.Z. And he paints a horror scenario on the wall: "If we don't do this, there is a risk that road traffic pollution due to robotaxes will increase by up to 40 percent in major cities by 2045 and the number of public transport users will collapse massively, which means that the costs of maintaining public transport will increase by three billion euros due to a lack of income for the public sector."

In science, people are not quite as alarmist. But traffic researchers are also concerned about the general consequences of the technology. Martin Kagerbauer, deputy head of the Institute for Transportation at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), is convinced: “Autonomous driving services could significantly change traffic in German cities.” In his opinion, whether the traffic volume will increase depends on many factors, including the price. However, Kagerbauer does not want to rule out the possibility that convenient transport services will lead to people using cars more often instead of buses and trains, thereby increasing the volume of traffic. There is definitely a risk that passengers will use local public transport less if it competes with ride-hailing services.

Ride hailing? Basically, experts differentiate between the technical terms ride-hailing and ride-pooling. They speak of ride-hailing when passengers are generally transported individually in a car, similar to a traditional taxi. Like in the case of Waymo, which is why its autonomous vehicles are also called robotaxis. Ridepooling, on the other hand, usually refers to collective transport, but with a flexible pick-up and destination location. And this is where public transport providers see their domain.

For example, the Rhein-Main-Verkehrsverbund (RMV), which has been promoting the Kira project since 2025. There are no individual robotaxis in the areas around Darmstadt and Offenbach, but rather vehicles integrated into the public transport service. Kira is ending soon, but RMV and DB Regio already have the follow-up project on the agenda, as they announced on Thursday.

“With KIRA+ we are building on the experience we have gained so far on autonomous driving,” says RMV boss Knut Ringat. “The goal is to integrate autonomous offerings into regular public transport in the near future.” There is even a German vehicle model in use - a Holon urban from the Benteler Group. The vehicle, which was specially developed for local public transport, offers five seats for passengers and one wheelchair space in test operation. It is intended to contribute to the big goal: that driverless transport will make attractive and affordable public transport possible in the future. Public transport is also suffering from a growing shortage of staff. According to the Association of German Transport Companies, there is already a shortage of around 20,000 bus drivers in Germany.

Van Zijderveld is convinced that autonomous public transport generally has a good chance. If autonomous vehicles are intelligently integrated into public transport, it would be an attractive public transport mobility offer for everyone. The DB Regional boss calculates: "It would take five to 13 minutes to get into the vehicle. The travel times would be similar to those in a private car." At the same time, passengers who switch from their own car to public transport could save around 170 euros per month. The public sector would have to finance public transport with 20 percent less money than today. “The economy could also tap into a €74 billion market for AI and digital-enabled products and services.”

The German bureaucracy is still in the process of being rolled out on a large scale. The RMV and DB also want to speed up their processes. Together with the state authorities and the Federal Motor Transport Authority, the processes are being prepared for faster approval of level 4 traffic, i.e. fully autonomous traffic: “So that when vehicles are technically ready, we can keep the time required for paperwork as short as necessary.” So 2027 will be a crucial year for autonomous transport in Germany. Then it should become clear who will be ahead in the transport of the future. And at what cost.