Postponed is not lifted: This is how the attitude of KNDS management and owners could be summarized. “An IPO in 2026 is still possible – provided the market conditions meet the expectations of shareholders,” said KNDS boss Jean-Paul Alary to the Handelsblatt. So far that has not been the case.
The IPO, originally planned for July this year, was postponed due to changed market conditions. Shares in defense companies were in extremely high demand, among other things due to rising defense spending worldwide - including in Germany and the European Union. Experts speak of a “special economic situation”.
Market unsettled
But the industry's securities have been under pressure for months, despite some brilliant business, and there have been significant price corrections due, among other things, to profit-taking. Investors are taking a closer look. In addition, the discontinuation of the F126 frigate project by Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, for example, caused uncertainty in the market.
More or less the entire defense industry suffers from this. The share price of Rheinmetall, Germany's largest defense company, has more than halved since its peak of around 2,000 euros a year ago.
The federal government could join KNDS
At KNDS we are now observing how the mood on the stock markets is developing. The manufacturer of the Leopard 2 main battle tank is looking for partners in the industry to expand its business, regardless of whether it goes public this year or later. Because demand is increasing. “We expect sales growth of around 30 percent for the year as a whole,” Alary told Handelsblatt.
The French state and the German owning family Wegmann each have a 50 percent stake in KNDS. In the event of a potential IPO, the placement of 20 percent of the shares would be planned. 40 percent should remain with the Wegmann family, the remaining 40 percent could be acquired by the German state.
Stock market business in Germany sluggish
In Germany this year, compared to other countries, there is again less enthusiasm for IPOs. According to a current analysis by the consulting firm EY, only eight companies went public in this country in the first nine months of this year. For comparison: There were 99 IPOs across Europe, 96 in the USA and 242 in China.
According to EY, 888 companies worldwide dared to go public in the first nine months of this year. That was four percent less than in the same period last year. But: Significantly more money was raised on the stock exchanges this year: at around $288 billion, well over twice as much as the previous year.
IPOs bigger
The main reason is the previous mega IPOs this year: SpaceX, which focuses on space travel and satellite communications, was listed on the US stock exchange in mid-June.
With a total of $86 billion, it was by far the largest IPO in history. And the South Korean chip manufacturer SK-Hynix brought in $26.5 billion from its second listing in the USA alone, according to EY.
Pipeline well filled
And there is still a lot to come: Among others, the US AI company Anthropic - known for the AI model series Claude - is planning to go public worth billions. Competitor OpenAI has postponed its IPO planned for this year.
Martin Steinbach from EY says: "We remain cautiously optimistic for the final quarter. The IPO pipeline is well filled both internationally and in Germany." But the right timing is crucial. And a fair market valuation.
“Uncertainties and risks such as a possible slowdown in the US economy, the results of the US midterms and further interest rate increases by central banks or further rising yields on the bond markets can always influence IPO sentiment in the short term,” warns Steinbach.
DAX recovered slightly
Meanwhile, uncertainty about the future interest rate policy of the major central banks and the unclear situation in the Iran war are weighing on the mood on the German stock market.
The DAX slipped below 25,000 points this morning for the first time since July. At midday, however, it was again at around the same level as the previous day, well above the psychologically important mark.
