A group of men and women stand in front of bivouac tents and olive green tarpaulins in the garden of the German embassy in Warsaw. Soldier Michal Szubert from Poland's Territorial Forces explains how to stay warm in an emergency using aluminum heat foil and a candle. «It's not about being comfortable. It's about you surviving." Embassy employee Susanne tries it out right away. She crouches on the lawn with a tea light and foil. “I wanted to experience what it felt like.”
Concern is growing in Poland about the spread of Russia's war against Ukraine. “We all don’t know what could happen to us over the course of the fall,” says the German ambassador in Warsaw, Miguel Berger. Preparation for a possible crisis situation is a big issue in Polish society. “There is also an increased need for security among the embassy staff.” That's why they decided on crisis training for the Polish army. The courses entitled “On Standby” are offered nationwide. The demand is great.
Why the mood in Poland is particularly tense
In Germany's neighboring country, hardly a day goes by without disturbing incidents. Russian drones have already attacked targets near the Polish-Ukrainian border crossing Dorohusk-Jahodyn on Ukrainian territory several times. A passenger train from Kyiv to Warsaw was also attacked there. Poland's navy recently fished a Russian drone out of the Baltic Sea near the coast. A Russian Mi-8 military helicopter violated the airspace over the NATO country for seconds.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk recently said he expected covert drone attacks and missile strikes against his country. Poland is strengthening its border crossings with Ukraine like military checkpoints. Bundeswehr soldiers are helping the army to fortify the border to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad with anti-tank barriers.
Dark Danish intelligence analysis
This is consistent with an analysis published on Thursday by the Danish Military and Foreign Intelligence Service (DDIS). This outlines a growing risk of limited military attacks by Russia on one or more NATO states bordering Russia - in the coming months. Such an attack could therefore also take place while the war in Ukraine is ongoing and even though Russia does not yet have the capabilities for a regional war with NATO.
The DDIS cites a targeted Russian missile attack on infrastructure that is important for supporting Ukraine as a possible scenario. Russia could then claim that the weapon only hit NATO territory because of Ukrainian interference. A false flag operation with Ukrainian drones to conceal the authorship is also conceivable.
Even a limited deployment of Russian soldiers on NATO territory is described as a possible scenario. However, according to the service's assessment, a difficult-to-hide buildup of regular forces at the border would probably be necessary beforehand.
According to intelligence officials, Russia's goal is to test the unity of NATO or to divide it - especially with regard to its support for Ukraine. Moscow is no longer just trying to create fear, but also to physically hinder aid deliveries - for example by sabotage against arms companies or rail transport.
NATO is on alert
The situation is seen similarly at NATO headquarters in Brussels and in the federal government. Hardly anyone currently assumes that Russian President Vladimir Putin would dare to openly attack an alliance state. However, developments in so-called hybrid attacks, i.e. attacks such as acts of sabotage, cyber attacks or disinformation campaigns that remain below the threshold of an open military attack, are being observed with concern.
“The number is increasing, the severity is increasing and the willingness to take risks is increasing,” said a senior NATO representative in a recent background conversation. Last year alone, more than 200 hybrid attacks were recorded - not including everyday cyber attacks. The alliance therefore sees a risk that Russia could one day go too far in a hybrid operation, cause numerous deaths and thereby trigger an escalation.
Pistorius: Threat has worsened
Security is in greater danger than it has been for a long time, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius recently said in the Bundestag. The SPD politician also refers to the explosives-laden drone over Lithuania, which was shot down by NATO jets, and the attempted attack on Leipzig airport at the beginning of August. Putin wants to scare people into saying that Germany needs to further strengthen its defense capabilities as quickly as possible.
In the event of a crisis, one direction: “Go west”
The Polish army's crisis training for the employees of the German embassy lasts four hours. During this time, they learned how to filter dirty water, start a fire with birch bark - and why a pocket knife can be better than an expensive multi-tool. Now comes the emergency backpack. A compass should also be included, says the instructor - as long as you can handle it. In the event of a crisis, one direction is enough: “Go west.”
