Mixed course in global markets: Employment data, Middle East tension and MTP announced

Last week, data shedding light on the US employment market gave mixed signals. While ADP private sector employment in the country pointed to a loss of momentum in the labor market, the significant increase in non-agricultural employment revealed that the economy maintained its warmth.

However, the concentration of non-agricultural employment in accommodation, food and beverage and public areas brought to the fore evaluations that the sharp increase in the workforce may be seasonal.

While the divergence of employment market data makes it difficult to shape expectations for the Fed's policy steps, pricing in the money markets indicates that there is a 58 percent probability that the Fed will increase the policy rate by 25 basis points at next week's meeting, and a 42 percent probability that it will keep it constant.

Inflation data to be announced this week in the USA is expected to give a clear message about the decisions the Fed will take next week.

While the statements of Fed officials were also followed, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that the policy was not restrictive. "Inflation is very high, and the longer it stays above our target, the harder it will be to bring it back down. What I'm hearing now is that it's time to act," Hammack said. he said.

On the other hand, US President Donald Trump, sharing on his social media account, emphasized that employment data tripled all estimates except his own and stated that interest rates should be reduced.

In another post, Trump underlined that the markets should rise when "great" data is received, saying, "But the stock market is falling again, because we live in a false perception of reality that when things are going well, we need to stop it immediately due to fear of inflation. However, the situation should be the opposite." made his assessment.

Trump stated that if it continues like this, the country will not be able to achieve the growth it deserves, and argued that growth will not cause inflation.

Analysts noted that despite the uncertainties regarding the Fed's steps, optimism in the field of artificial intelligence supports the markets. Accordingly, US-based artificial intelligence company OpenAI announced its most advanced and intelligent artificial intelligence model ever called GPT-6 Astra.

In the statement made by OpenAI, it was reported that "GPT-6 Astra", which was recently opened to access by a limited number of users, has advanced cyber capacity and high autonomous control ability, can manage complex computer systems, and can carry out operations such as filling out spreadsheets and designing a website from scratch without human intervention.

The expectation that other artificial intelligence developers will increase their investments following the said model has strengthened the predictions that demand will increase in the semiconductor sector, keeping the risk appetite for technology stocks alive, especially in the Asian side.

On the geopolitical side, developments on the US-Iran line continue to be followed. Yesterday, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that it targeted a US aircraft carrier and a destroyer ship participating in the naval blockade against Iranian ships with ballistic missiles.

In addition, Mohsen Rezai, Secretary General of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, announced that an agreement with Oman regarding the new corridor of the entrance and exit of the Strait of Hormuz under Iran's control will be signed in the coming days.

The rise in oil prices continues in the new week

Following these developments, oil prices continue their upward trend due to concerns about energy supply. The barrel price of November delivery Brent oil, which closed the week at 96.3 dollars with a 0.8 percent increase on Friday, started the new week with a 1.1 percent increase at 97.3 dollars.

The US 10-year bond interest, which fluctuated last week with employment data giving mixed signals in the US and concerns that inflationary pressures originating from the Middle East would continue, started the new week with a horizontal course at 4.79 percent, after closing the week at 4.78 percent.

While the dollar index maintained its strong stance due to the uncertainties regarding the Fed, it started the new week with a horizontal course at 99.2.

The ounce price of gold started the new week with a depreciation due to interest rate increase forecasts and the strengthening dollar index. An ounce of gold is currently buying at $4,396, down 0.8 percent.

On Friday, the S&P 500 lost 0.38 percent, the Nasdaq index lost 0.29 percent and the Dow Jones index lost 0.51 percent in the New York Stock Exchange. Index futures contracts in the USA started the week negatively. The New York Stock Exchange will be closed today for Labor Day.

Index futures contracts in Europe started the week negatively

While European stock markets are mixed on Friday, all eyes will be on the monetary policy decisions to be taken by the European Central Bank (ECB) in the new week.

The lack of tension in the Middle East over the weekend fueled concerns that energy prices, which remain high, could negatively affect European economies.

Analysts stated that this situation was effective in index futures contracts in Europe having a negative start to the week, and said that the statements to be made by President Christine Lagarde following the ECB's interest rate decision during the week may increase volatility in the markets.

Analysts stated that the growth data to be announced in the Eurozone and the industrial production data in Germany are in the focus of investors today, and stated that the possibility of the bank's two interest rate increases by the end of the year continues to be priced in the money markets.

On the other hand, in Germany, the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party won the state parliament elections held in Saxony-Anhalt with 43.8 percent of the votes, but could not obtain the necessary majority to come to power on its own.

While the FTSE 100 index in England remained flat on Friday, the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy fell by 0.28 percent and the CAC 40 index in France fell by 0.09 percent. The DAX 40 index in Germany increased by 0.17 percent.

Rapid rise is seen in South Korea

While positive developments in the field of artificial intelligence support risk appetite in Asian stock markets, the rise in the Kospi index in South Korea is noteworthy. Purchases in the Kospi index, which has a heavy weight on technology and semiconductors, strengthened with the expectation that artificial intelligence investments will increase.

Shares of South Korean semiconductor company SK Hynix rose 7.4 percent, shares of technology company LG Electronics rose 5.1 percent and shares of Samsung Electronics rose 5 percent.

On the other hand, according to the data announced today, the leading index in Japan was below expectations with 117.9.

Meanwhile, while the depreciation of the Japanese yen against the dollar is being curbed, investors are closely following the possible steps taken by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Dollar/yen parity is at 156.09 with a horizontal trend. Japan's reserves fell by $79.6 billion in August. Analysts stated that the authorities' use of these assets to support the yen was effective in the decrease in reserves, and noted that the data also indicates that the economic management has sufficient financial resources if it is necessary to intervene again.

With these developments, near the closing, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan increased by 1.9 percent and the Kospi index in South Korea increased by 4.1 percent, while the Shanghai composite index in China decreased by 0.2 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong decreased by 1.2 percent.

Vice President Yılmaz announced the MTP

BIST 100 index at Borsa Istanbul, which followed a buying-oriented trend on Friday, closed the day at 14,012.42 points, gaining 0.57 percent in value.

The October futures contract based on the BIST 30 index in the Borsa Istanbul Futures and Options Market (VIOP) rose by 0.08 percent in the evening session on Friday compared to the normal session closing.

On the other hand, yesterday, Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz announced the Medium Term Program (MTP) covering the 2027-2029 period at the Presidential Complex with Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek, Presidential Secretary General Hakkı Susmaz, Presidential Strategy and Budget President İbrahim Şenel and Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) President Fatih Karahan.

Vice President Yılmaz said, "We expect the inflation rate to decrease again in the last quarter of 2026 and to be 28.4 percent at the end of the year." he said.

Stating that they expect the growth to be 3.3 percent in 2026, Yılmaz stated that they expect the growth to gradually strengthen and reach 4.2 percent in 2027, 4.6 percent in 2028 and 5 percent in 2029.

While Dollar/TL completed Friday at 48.4330, it is traded at 48.4390 at the opening of the interbank market today, just above the previous closing.

Analysts stated that the domestic data agenda is calm today, while growth in the Eurozone and industrial production data in Germany will be followed abroad, and noted that technically, 13,900 and 13,800 points in the BIST 100 index are support, and 14,100 and 14,200 points are resistance.