Continuing inflationary pressures in economies, inflation being above the target, and leading central banks taking steps to increase interest rates are causing an increase in selling pressure in global bond markets.
Rising oil prices fuel inflation fears, leading to increased predictions that central banks around the world, especially the US Federal Reserve (Fed), may accelerate the tightening process in monetary policies.
The increase in long-term bond interest rates increases borrowing costs on a global scale and increases the pressure on stock valuations. Although there have been retreats after the sharp increases in bond yields around the world, bond interest rates are still at high levels, causing an increase in risk perception in global markets.
With these developments, yesterday, the US 10-year bond interest rate reached the highest level since 2002, with 5.34 percent and 30-year bond interest with 5.69 percent.
Today, the US 10-year bond interest is balanced at 5.25 percent and the 30-year bond interest is at 5.62 percent.
On the other hand, the increase in the ISM paid prices index in the USA from 77.1 to 77.9 revealed that US producers are struggling with increasing raw material costs.
This situation increases inflationary concerns and causes continued demand for dollars. The dollar index, which reached its highest level since April 2025 with 102.2 yesterday, is currently at 101.9 levels today.
The decline in the euro, especially due to financial concerns originating from France, also supports the dollar.
Following the news in the US press that the Pentagon will send a third aircraft carrier and additional soldiers to the Middle East and that US President Donald Trump is considering restarting bombing Iran after the midterm elections, the December term barrel price of Brent oil, which increased by 6.1 percent yesterday to 104 dollars, is today flat at 102.3 dollars.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on European partners to accelerate the process of meeting their existing commitments and immediately bring additional supply to the market to address disruptions in global diesel supply.
With the effect of today's decline in bond interest rates, gold is traded at 4 thousand 191 dollars per ounce, with an increase of 0.3 percent. On the other hand, Trump, who made statements to the press as he left Washington for the events he will organize in Texas, said that interest rates would harm growth.
In addition to these developments, the statements of Fed officials are also followed closely. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that if the economy is resilient and inflation follows a stricter course than anticipated, the policy rate may need to increase to even higher levels.
Kashkari noted that he did not have a definitive opinion on whether the next interest rate increase should be made at the October meeting.
Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson also emphasized that any adjustments to monetary policy will be determined by careful examination of data trends, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks.
Stating that he and other Fed officials may need some more time to make this assessment, Jefferson stated that trends can be better analyzed when more data is available.
On the other hand, within the scope of "Operation Economic Exclusion", the US Treasury Department decided to impose sanctions on the Russia-linked shadow banking network A7, which Iran uses to evade sanctions.
Cautious optimism was seen in the New York stock market
The New York stock exchange finished the day with a slight increase after bond interest rates fell from the highest level in many years. On the macroeconomic data side, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the USA decreased to 197 thousand in the week ending September 26, remaining below market expectations.
As Nike's revenues decreased and its sales to China decreased, the company's shares decreased by 0.7 percent yesterday and fell 8.5 percent in after-market transactions today.
With these developments, the Dow Jones index gained 0.04 percent, the S&P 500 index gained 0.19 percent and the Nasdaq index gained 0.04 percent.
Index futures contracts in the USA started the day positively. Non-farm employment data to be announced today in the USA is expected to give clues about the Fed's policies.
European stock markets remained negative
European stock markets were negative yesterday due to the rise in bond interest rates. France's 10-year bond interest rose to 4.96 percent, the highest level since 2002. Concerns about France's public debt are growing. France aims to narrow the budget deficit by limiting expenditures and increasing tax revenues.
The increase in energy costs and inflation data from France, Italy and Germany, which came above expectations, increased the selling pressure on European markets. All eyes in European markets will be on Eurozone inflation data today. Consumer prices in the region are expected to rise to 3.7 percent, the highest level in 3 years.
The 30-year bond interest rate in the UK rose above 6 percent, reaching the highest level since 1998. Concerns about public debt are also prominent in the UK. The new budget is expected to be announced in the country on October 28.
Meanwhile, Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB), in her speech at the opening of the ESRB's 10th Anniversary Conference, emphasized that policy makers should foresee the risks to the entire financial system in order for artificial intelligence to be used safely in the financial sector.
On the macroeconomic data side, the manufacturing industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in the Eurozone reached 52.9 points in September, reaching the highest level of the last 52 months.
With these developments, the FTSE 100 index in England lost 1.68 percent, the DAX 40 index in Germany lost 1.03 percent, the CAC 40 index in France lost 1.62 percent and the FTSE MIB index in Italy lost 2.21 percent.
Index futures contracts in Europe started the day with a mixed trend.
Asian stock markets remain negative except South Korea
Asian stock markets are following a negative trend, except for South Korea, as investors remain cautious ahead of non-farm employment data. Rising bond yields and oil prices continue to suppress risk appetite in the region.
Japan's 10-year bond interest, which reached the highest level since 1995 at 3.11 percent yesterday, is currently at 3.090 percent today. Japan's borrowing costs have come under pressure due to a weakening yen and interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
On the macroeconomic data side, Tokyo inflation for September in Japan increased from 1.9 percent to 2.7 percent on an annual basis, and this strengthened the predictions that the BoJ may increase interest rates.
With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan lost 1 percent of its value, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong lost 2.6 percent of its value, while the Kospi index in South Korea gained 0.1 percent.
There are no transactions in Chinese stock markets today due to a holiday.
The stock market finished the day with an increase
BIST 100 index at Borsa Istanbul, which followed a buying-oriented trend yesterday, closed the day at 12,249.04 points, gaining 2.53 percent in value.
The October futures contract based on the BIST 30 index in the Borsa Istanbul Futures and Options Market (VIOP) gained 0.11 percent in yesterday evening session compared to the normal session closing.
While Dollar/TL completed the day yesterday with a 0.1 percent increase at 49.0133, today, at the opening of the interbank market, it is traded at 49.1230, 0.1 percent above the previous closing.
The Capital Markets Board (CMB) announced that an interim payment will be made immediately to all unit holders whose reconciliation procedures have been completed for the funds whose liquidation process is ongoing, to be offset from the final amount they will be entitled to as a result of the liquidation, and that the interim payment amount to be paid to each investor separately for each fund will not exceed 1 million liras.
In addition, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in his speech at the General Assembly of the Parliament on the occasion of the opening of the 28th Term 5th Legislative Year of the Turkish Grand National Assembly, stated that they have successfully overcome the problem that arose in a certain part of the fund market. Stating that they resolved this issue quickly, within the framework of capital market rules, by observing equity and justice, without compromising anyone's rights, Erdoğan said, "I hope we will not allow this issue to turn into a threat to our economic security and social peace." he said.
Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek also attended the Global Emerging Markets Conference organized by S&P Global via remote connection and made evaluations regarding the latest developments in the global economy, geopolitical tensions and the Turkish economy.
Şimşek stated that they acted very quickly regarding the latest developments in the fund markets. Stating that they quarantined problematic portfolio management companies and related funds, Şimşek said, "The process of liquidation and resolution of the funds in question has begun. Our aim here was to stop the spread of the contagion to the rest of the system, and we think we were largely successful in this." he said.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) announced that, within the scope of the changes it made in the reserve requirement application, the growth limit for SME loans from 4.5 percent was increased to 5 percent, and the blocked facility rates for Turkish lira required reserves were reduced.
Analysts stated that today the 2nd meeting of the Fund Coordination Board will be followed in the country and the intensive data agenda will be followed abroad, especially non-agricultural data in the USA and inflation in the Euro Zone, and noted that technically, 12,400 and 12,500 points in the BIST 100 index are resistance and 12,100 and 12,000 points are support.
The data and developments to follow in the markets today are as follows:
12.00 Eurozone, September Consumer Price Index (CPI)
15.30 USA, September non-farm employment
15.30 USA, September unemployment rate
15.30 US, average hourly earnings in September
17.00 USA, August factory orders
17.00 USA, August durable goods orders
