
An in-depth analysis of the evolution of the crisis between Israel, Hamas, Lebanon and Iran from the October 7 massacre to recent political and diplomatic developments.
Analysis of the evolution of the conflict in the Middle East which began on 7 October 2023 with the Hamas attack on Israel, passing through the fronts in Lebanon and Iran, up to the peace negotiations mediated by the United States and the internal Israeli political situation in 2026.
AI-generated summary
The conflict began on 7 October 2023 with the 'Al-Aqsa Flood' operation conducted by Hamas against Israel.
October 7, 2023 is the date that changed - forever - the scenario of the conflict between Israel and Hamas. That day the "Al-Aqsa Flood" operation, long planned in secret, began. The Al-Qassam brigades, the military wing of Hamas, announced the offensive by launching rockets on Israeli territories. At the same time, terrorists entered Israel, on foot, with homemade aircraft or motorcycles, carrying out massacres in the kibbutzim near the border with the Strip, killing families and kidnapping people. Hamas also targeted a rave party, with young participants killed or kidnapped as they danced and listened to music. The victims of the massacre, in total, were approximately 1,300. Israel's reaction came a few hours after the carnage: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the Jewish state had entered the war with Operation "Iron Swords".
Netanyahu immediately set the objective of the Israeli response as the "destruction of Hamas" and promised a "total victory", but without indicating clear timing. However, Israel was unable to immediately recover all its hostages, a point which sparked fierce protests from a section of Israeli society. "Free the hostages and lay down your weapons. If you do it you will live, if you don't Israel will hunt you", the message for Hamas launched by Netanyahu in his speech to the UN General Assembly on 26 September 2025. A few days later, negotiations regarding the US peace plan began. On 13 October 2025, 20 men were released, the last living hostages still held by Hamas, following the ceasefire agreements. In total, out of 251 people abducted, 168 returned alive to Israel. The body of the last killed Israeli hostage, not yet found after the ceasefire agreed with the truce, was handed over to the Israeli authorities on 27 January 2026.
The siege of the Gaza Strip has had implications that have especially affected civilians, forced to live under bombing or to move within the Strip. All this while the area continued to lack drinking water and food due to Israel's restrictions on the entry of international humanitarian aid. The images arriving from Gaza, and especially from Gaza City, even three years after the start of the conflict, are of an area almost completely razed to the ground. Where once there were buildings and a wide road that ran along the seafront, now there is only rubble.
Not just Gaza. There have also been Israeli raids in Syria and the West Bank. And then the front opened with Lebanon, with Hezbollah - the Shiite movement (literally Party of God) that dominates the south of the country - which has launched missiles towards Israel since 8 October 2023, in support of the Hamas offensive. The tension in Northern Israel, i.e. on the border with Lebanon, has had several peaks of intensity. In September 2024, Israel killed Hezbollah's number two, Ibrahim Aqil, with an explosion.
Then, on the afternoon of September 17, 2024, several explosions of two-way radios were recorded in Lebanon and Syria. The so-called 'pagers' used by Hezbollah members exploded. Dozens dead and thousands injured. Hezbollah immediately said that "enemy Israel" had been behind the explosions. Since that moment, other Israeli raids have followed one another on Lebanon, including Beirut, with increasing intensity, resulting in a million displaced people and thousands of victims.
After October 7, Iran (also closely linked to Hezbollah) played an increasingly central role in the growing tension in the Middle East. On 13 April 2024 it attacked Israel, effectively crossing a new threshold, with the launch of over 300 missiles and drones, directly from its territory to that of Israel, without however causing much damage. The Iranian move came in response to the April 1 attack, blamed on Israel, on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, in which several senior Pasdaran officers were killed.
A new Iranian attack then took place on the evening of October 1st when Tehran launched missiles towards Israel, in revenge for the killing of various leading exponents of the "Axis of Resistance". There were no victims, but the IDF admitted that some missiles hit some bases in the country, without however causing serious consequences.
On June 13, 2025, Israel also launched Operation Rising Lion against the Islamic Republic, which it accused of approaching "a point of no return" in the development of a nuclear weapon. Tehran's response was immediate, launching rockets towards Israeli cities. Then the US entered the field, on 22 June, with an attack on three nuclear sites in Iran and the subsequent Iranian retaliation on the US base of Al Udeid in Qatar. After an uneasy truce, came the end of the conflict which was dubbed "the 12 day war".
But on February 28, 2026, the USA and Israel launched a new heavy joint operation on Iran, dubbed "Epic Fury" by the Americans and "Roar of the Lion" by the Israelis. The Iranian retort led to a long conflict, which caused, among other things, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with serious global economic consequences.
In March 2025, a United Nations investigation accused Israel of carrying out “acts of genocide” in the Gaza Strip through the systematic destruction of hospitals and health facilities. The accusation was immediately rejected by the Jewish state.
In June 2025, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) was created, a foundation supported by Israel and the United States, to distribute aid to Gaza. But the activities were immediately accompanied by scenes of chaos, with Israeli soldiers repeatedly opening fire on the crowd. The situation in the Strip has worsened especially since 16 September 2025, when Israel launched a new ground attack, with tanks entering Gaza City.
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly promised that he would put an end to the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Just a month after his second inauguration in Washington, the tycoon, in no uncertain terms, announced that the US would take "control of Gaza", with a plan aimed at Washington's "long-term" management of the territory. Trump had spoken of a future "Middle East Riviera", sparking criticism and controversy.
After several meetings with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, on September 29, 2025 the White House published a list of 20 points for a peace agreement. Among the points he reiterated that the Strip "will be a deradicalized and terrorism-free zone that will not represent a threat to its neighbors" that "will be redeveloped for the benefit of the population of Gaza, who has suffered more than enough".
Hamas said it was willing to negotiate on the points set by Washington. And, on the eve of the second anniversary of October 7, Monday, October 6, 2025, negotiations began in Sharm el-Sheikh. The key points were the release of all hostages, the end of the war, the withdrawal of Israel and the disarmament of Hamas, and a temporary transitional government. Trump immediately issued a warning to Hamas: it will suffer "complete destruction" if it refuses to cede power and control of Gaza.
On the Italian night between October 8 and 9, 2025, Trump declared: "I am very proud to announce that Israel and Hamas have both signed on to the first phase of our peace plan."
Hamas has released the last 20 living Israeli hostages, while Israel has released almost 2,000 Palestinian detainees. The most difficult points of the agreement, such as the governance of Gaza and the disarmament of Hamas terrorists, remained pending with the condition of future negotiations.
Israel, meanwhile, has never been so internally divided. Criticized internationally for its choices, and above all for the situation created in Gaza, the country is experiencing a phase of great instability and will go to the polls at the end of October 2026.
Over the past year, Israel has repeatedly resumed bombings in Gaza. In late July 2026, Trump said his Peace Council had reached an agreement to disarm Hamas and other organizations in Gaza. Hamas leader Ghazi Hamad said disarmament would depend on Israel's withdrawal from Gaza and progress in reconstruction, and that Hamas would not implement any part of the agreement unless Israeli forces respected the terms of the agreement. Ahead of the elections, Netanyahu rejected the Peace Council agreement.
The Trump administration's plan calls for dividing Gaza into an Israeli-controlled outer zone and a coastal region to be occupied by a US-led international force before power is transferred to the Palestinians under the supervision of the Peace Council chaired by Trump. The reconstruction of Gaza is estimated at 70 billion dollars.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Elections in Israel at the end of October 2026
Very likely · Within months

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