Iceland remains outside the European Union. According to the definitive data, after over 190 thousand ballots counted, the 'No' won with 52.8% of the votes, while the Yes stood at 47.2%. Voter turnout was very high, as reported by NTB. Given the outcome emerging from the polls, the issue of EU membership will not return to the table at least until the end of the current legislature, i.e. until 2028. The Reykjavik government had presented the membership plan as an opportunity not to be missed, "now or never", and Icelandic Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadottir had told voters that a "no" would put aside any speculation about the EU.
The reasons for the two sides
Yes supporters argued that EU membership could ease high interest rates and offer greater security in a world reeling from the war in Ukraine and US President Donald Trump's rhetoric about annexing Greenland. No supporters argued that EU membership would threaten the island's sovereignty and its fishing waters. Iceland first applied for EU membership in 2009, when a financial crisis hit the country's economy. A Eurosceptic government halted negotiations in 2013
In Reykjavík, success for pro-Europeans was less than expected
The pro-Europeans, the front in favor of reopening negotiations to join the EU, were betrayed by the electoral result in the capital, where the Yes party won but with a smaller gap than expected. In the Reykjavík South constituency, 54.49% of voters answered yes to the referendum question, 45.51% no. The result was better in the constituency of Reykjavík North, where 57.51% answered yes and 42.49% no. Towards the victory of the no vote, barring sensational twists.
Early voting and the fishing issue
The center-left government of Prime Minister Kristru'n Frostadottir had promised to organize the consultation by 2027, but brought forward the vote due to international tensions, including threats from US President Donald Trump against Greenland. The electoral campaign in the country of almost 400 thousand inhabitants, however, focused above all on fishing. The seafood sector represents almost 40% of Icelandic exports and many no supporters feared that EU membership would force Reykjavik to cede part of control over its waters under the common European fisheries policy.
The previous request and suspension in 2013
Iceland is already part of the European single market and the Schengen area. Accession would also have entailed entry into the customs union and, subsequently, the adoption of the euro. The question put to voters was: "Should Iceland resume accession negotiations with the European Union?" A possible victory for the Yes vote would not have automatically determined entry into the EU, but would have allowed an agreement to be negotiated which would then have been subjected to a second referendum. Likewise, the victory of the no vote does not definitively exclude the possibility of reopening talks in the future. Reykjavik applied for membership in 2009, after the financial crisis and the collapse of the national banking system. The negotiations were already at an advanced stage when, in 2013, a Eurosceptic government decided to suspend them. Even then the main obstacle was fishing rights.
