The OECD revises Italian growth upwards for 2026 to 0.9%, but forecasts a contraction in 2027

Italy's GDP will grow by 0.9% in 2026 against 0.5% in 2025, and then contract to 0.6% in 2027: this is what emerges from the OECD's Interim Economic Outlook presented today in Paris. The estimates have been revised compared to the previous June Outlook. Before the summer, the organization predicted growth of 0.5% for Italy (0.4 points less than today) for 2026. For 2027, the estimate remained unchanged at 0.6%.

"Global growth has held up better than expected, but the reserves that made it possible to cushion the energy shock are running out" is the warning launched by the secretary general of the OECD, Mathias Cormann. "Growth is weaker than last year and inflation has started to rise again," warns Cormann, adding that "countries must direct aid to those who need it most and bring public spending back to a sustainable path. They must also lay the foundations for long-term growth through stronger skills robust, more diversified energy supplies and faster adoption of AI."

World GDP will grow by 2.9% in 2026 and 3% in 2027 against 3.4% in 2025. The estimates have been slightly revised compared to the previous June Outlook. Before the summer, the organization forecast growth of 2.8% (0.1 point less than today) for 2026 and 3.1% for 2027 (0.1 point more than today). According to the Parisian organisation, global economic prospects remain "strongly conditioned by the achievement of a lasting solution to the conflict in the Middle East". In the United States, the OECD points out, annual growth is expected to stand at 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, with "strong investments related to artificial intelligence partially offset by a slowdown in consumer spending and real income growth". For the eurozone, the Paris-based international organization estimates "a GDP increase of 1.0% in both 2026 and 2027, thanks to strengthening demand as energy prices normalize and new initiatives in the defense sector gain momentum". In China, “growth is expected to contract to 4.5% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027.”

The global economic outlook "remains strongly influenced by the achievement of a lasting solution to the conflict in the Middle East. Energy prices have recently started to rise again due to the intensification of interruptions to production and exports in the Gulf economies". “High refining margins, due to production bottlenecks, place further upward pressure on consumer prices and business costs,” the OECD continues in the document entitled 'Resist subsequent shocks', adding that “prices of some agricultural commodities have also increased sharply in recent months, partly due to the impact of extreme weather conditions on supply”. The body highlights how long-term interest rates have "reached the highest levels in the last fifteen years (or more) in many economies, in the face of growing concerns about long-term fiscal risks and the large issuance of bonds by companies linked to artificial intelligence. Nonetheless - the OECD points out - general financial conditions remain favourable, supported by high stock markets and a recovery in credit growth". The OECD warns that today there is "considerable uncertainty regarding these prospects, in particular regarding possible developments in energy markets. The trend in oil and gas prices depends crucially on the duration of supply disruptions, the ability of producers and consumers to adapt and on geopolitical developments". "A faster normalization of energy markets - write the economists in the document presented today in Paris - would ease inflationary pressures and support economic activity, while new or more persistent disruptions could lead to both higher inflation and weaker growth".

The OECD expects inflation to rise in the short term, reflecting rising commodity prices, before gradually easing in 2027 as contracting energy prices and tighter monetary policy help limit broader price pressures. According to the OECD, overall G20 inflation will fall from 4.1% in 2026 to 3.6% in 2027". In Italy, again according to the Paris-based international organisation, inflation is expected to fall from 3% in 2026 to 2.6% in 2027 (0.4 points more than the previous June outlook). ''The continuous changes in trade policies, both in terms of duties and restrictions exports, increases political uncertainty and contributes to disrupting supply chains": this is the warning contained in the OECD Interim Economic Outlook presented today in Paris. According to the Paris-based international organisation, ''it estimates that the new US bilateral duties, in force since July, have raised the average effective rate of US duties by approximately one percentage point.'

''The Italian economy, as well as that of other countries such as Germany and Spain, has demonstrated greater resilience than we could have expected in June": the OECD's chief economist, Stefano Scarpetta, on the day of the presentation of the OECD Economic Outlook Interim Report in Paris, thus responded to ANSA's question on the upward revision in the latest OECD forecasts (from 0.5% to 0.9%) of Italian growth for 2026. Scarpetta therefore invited Italy to move forward with structural reforms to promote productivity and economic growth". "We had a good second quarter and an upward revision from Istat on the first quarter. This means that in the first part of the year growth was stronger than what we could have expected (in the OECD forecasts) in June", continued Scarpetta, according to whom Italian growth "was driven by consumption, but also by investments, including public investments linked to the Pnrr. Obviously we know well that the Pnrr will end at the end of 2026 and this will in some way be one of the engines of the growth that will be missing. And this is why we must continue with structural reforms to promote productivity and economic growth", he concluded.