School bags repopulate the sidewalks, playgrounds come alive again... It's time to go back to school in this first week of September for six million schoolchildren, who began their year in French nursery and elementary schools. But the pronounced drop in births is having repercussions in classrooms. The number of primary school children has fallen by more than 10% over the past ten years, from 6.77 million in 2016 to 6.02 million in 2026. A projection from the Ministry of National Education published in the spring still forecasts nearly a million fewer students by 2035.
While candidates for the presidential election compete with each other with proposals, particularly in terms of teacher remuneration, some – like the former Prime Ministers of Emmanuel Macron, Edouard Philippe or Gabriel Attal – imagine financing these reforms thanks to the savings generated by this demographic decline.
Economist at the Institute of Public Policies, Julien Grenet looked into two scenarios in a study. The first consists of keeping the number of students per class constant (21 on average at the start of the 2026 primary school year) and making savings by eliminating excess teaching positions. The second amounts to reducing the size of classes to 18 students on average, while maintaining the current number of school teachers.
“A historic opportunity”
According to the researcher's calculations, following the demographic decline would make it possible to eliminate 53,000 teaching positions by 2034, for savings reaching 3.4 billion euros that year. A sum that could help “reduce the public deficit”, he points out. Before tempering: “This is not necessarily a good idea, because educational spending is one of the most profitable in the long term.”
“This is not where we should think about saving money, because we are depriving ourselves of future benefits.”
Julien Grenet, economist
at franceinfo
How to explain it? We see "better academic results in smaller classes, assures Julien Grenet. Better academic results improve professional integration in the long term. So we can convert a reduction in class size into a future increase in the salaries of those who have benefited from it." The work of the Public Policy Institute thus estimates the benefit of a reduction to around 18 students per class – while keeping a stable number of teachers – at 4.5 billion euros for society in 2034.
“The demographic decline can be a historic opportunity to increase the quality of education,” argues Mustafa Ozcelik, vice-president of the FCPE, an organization representing parents. Aurélie Gagnier, spokesperson for the FSU-SNUipp, the majority teaching union, agrees: “We must lower this number so that in all classes, we can be around 19 students, since that is the European average.”
Accentuated territorial inequalities?
The trade unionist, however, is wary of averages. The demographic decline is in fact very variable depending on the departments, which leads to significant territorial inequalities. “Disadvantaged departments have higher class sizes than advantaged departments,” laments economist Julien Grenet. “In Paris, over the last ten years, the size of classes excluding priority education has fallen by 13%, he notes. In Seine-Saint-Denis, it has fallen by only 5%.”
These inequalities already observed are likely to worsen in the next ten years. The north and east of France will thus be particularly affected by the drop in the number of students by 2035, according to National Education projections. Aisne and the Ardennes, neighboring departments with a similar social profile, could have different class sizes: around 15 students per class in the Ardennes compared to 17 in Aisne, according to the study by the Institute of Public Policies. Young people from Ardennes could therefore learn in more favorable conditions than those from Axon.
But this drop in the number of students also raises fears of continued class closures. “Sometimes, for two or three students, we see a class being eliminated, or even a school. What is happening behind? You have a reduction in public service in the municipality concerned,” laments Mustafa Ozcelik. This reduction in the number of classes has been observed for four decades. The number of public schools increased from 60,059 in 1985 to 42,443 in 2025. Rural areas are particularly affected, according to ministry data.
An upheaval to anticipate
In its study, the Institute of Public Policies thus insists on the need to plan today a distribution of teachers to guarantee equity between territories. “We cannot do this at the last moment, because it is politically unthinkable to force teachers currently in post to move around the territory, explains Julien Grenet. What is possible is to play on recruitment. That is to say, in each academy, decide how many positions we open.”
“For example, we should freeze recruitment in Paris for ten years, and increase it in other academies,” he illustrates. A solution that does not convince the FSU-SNUipp spokesperson. “The academies of Créteil, Versailles and Guyana are three academies where, even if we open the quotas, we are not full,” laments Aurélie Gagnier.
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The union leader affirms that the subject of demographic decline “recurs regularly across the board” during discussions with the ministry. From this projection, Edouard Geffray, the Minister of National Education, announced an experiment in 18 departments (including Aisne, Martinique and Finistère). “These territories will work on their school map in view of the numbers and transport constraints, and then deduce a coherent employment plan,” he specifies in Le Monde.
Economist Julien Grenet warns of "the scale of the drop, which is gigantic" and hopes for greater action from the public authorities. While the democratic shift is beginning to be felt in colleges, the researcher warns: “There is a decline for decades, which will spread through the system to higher education.”
