The National Police links the massive entry of immigrants in Ceuta to a 'gray zone' strategy

The National Police considers that the massive entry of immigrants into Ceuta at the end of July may be an episode - the most serious - within a strategy typical of the "gray zone." In other words, he believes that what happened on the border of Morocco and Ceuta was not spontaneous, but rather a planned action with the aim of harming Spain without resorting to open war.

The report from the National Center for Immigration and Borders (CENIF) of the National Police, provided to the National Court, maintains that the episode of July 30 and 31 must be analyzed taking into account two previous events: the massive entries of migrants into Spain in May 2021 and in August and September 2024. It links all of them to the same phenomenon, as it points out that each of the massive entries has reflected a "learning" and a "improvement."

"The activity developed around this process must necessarily have continuity, at least from 2021, although it is much more limited and diluted during the intermediate periods," reflects the police document. Likewise, he concludes that "this type of actions of calculated ambiguity and gradual advance with intermittent activity are typical characteristics of gray zone strategies."

In terms of international relations, the "gray zone" is one in which hybrid strategies are developed to destabilize or cause damage to another State without resorting to a war operation. When these strategies are promoted, it is common to try to disguise or hide their real authorship. The fact that the National Police interprets what happened as a "gray zone" strategy means that it suspects that there was a state actor behind the planning and execution of the massive entry of immigrants into the autonomous city.

What's more, he considers that the majority of people who crossed the border "were not seeking to remain in Spanish territory." The "immigration purpose" was only "formal coverage" and the real intention of the promoters of the massive entry into Ceuta was to destabilize Spain, according to the CENIF conclusions.

The 55-page document does not attribute the facts directly to the State or the Government of Morocco, although it points out that the Security Forces and Corps of this country collaborated to facilitate the tens of thousands of people crossing the border with Spain. The Police emphasize the scarce police presence in the area and highlight that the agents present there - both gendarmes and others not in uniform - carried out "active guidance" of the migrants who were heading to El Tarajal.

On the other hand, CENIF maintains that the level of action planning is outside the reach of the mafias that operate in the area, which again leads to pointing to a state actor as the promoter of the massive entry of immigrants into Spanish territory. Furthermore, the Police highlight that, after the episode at the end of July, messages were disseminated, "even at an official level", which justified "Morocco's territorial claim that questions Spain's sovereignty over Ceuta and Melilla."

In the appendix of conclusions that concludes the police report, the CENIF stops to analyze what effects the entry of nearly 80,000 migrants into the autonomous city of Ceuta has had. Most of these effects are linked to the destabilization of the Spanish State.

Firstly, the report states that what happened has had a clear "institutional impact." This "is reflected in the saturation of prevention, containment, response and assistance capacities" in Spain, "all with the consequent economic and organizational impact."

The Police also look at the impact on civil society. "It ranges from limitations in the exercise of rights to sociopolitical agitation, misinformation, trust in institutions, the deterioration of public security, the impact on the health system, etc."

Both consequences—the institutional damage and that suffered by civil society—come together and give rise to "a collateral effect of a geopolitical component with deterioration of the country's image and international questioning induced by the situation generated," says the Police.

Likewise, the report specifies that the Ceuta crisis has caused "an evident internal political destabilization and imbalances in the integration of the respective response actions of the different State structures involved in them."