The polls give PP and Vox a very comfortable majority to form a Government, but the PSOE is already doing the math to close the gap and gain seats in three ways: turning the disadvantage into an "epic" comeback, taking advantage of Vox's growth if it weakens the PP and exploring joint lists with forces to its left to contest the Senate province by province.
The social mobilization after the eviction of Maricarmen and the fall of the housing decrees mark the start of the campaign. Sánchez's challenge is to transform this climate into votes and, at the same time, find cracks in a right-wing bloc that today starts with a wide advantage.
The latest DYM survey for 20 minutes shows the size of the challenge. PP and Vox would add between 200 and 208 seats, compared to 107-111 for the PSOE. The Socialists, however, have risen 1.9 points since September, to 28.2%. Part of this improvement coincides with the decline of Sumar and Podemos, which together remain at 6.2%. That is to say, the PSOE is beginning to recover ground, but at the expense of the parties to its left.
In Ferraz they avoid opening a fight with these formations for now and ask them to reach an agreement as soon as possible. But the PSOE is already marking distances in the campaign and disputing flags traditionally associated with its left. The approval of the new housing decrees was an example: although the Socialists and Sumar continue to share the Government, Sánchez presented the measures as his own response to a crisis that has put thousands of people onto the streets. The socialists are beginning to occupy that space while on their left they continue trying to organize leadership and candidacies.
Shorten distances with the PP through Vox
On the other hand, in the PSOE they see an opportunity to make profitable results in the growth of Vox. The idea is that Santiago Abascal's party can take votes from the PP and, in some provinces, make it lose seats. Some internal surveys conducted by the Socialists place the PSOE between 125 and 129 deputies, the PP between 115 and 116 and Vox between 70 and 75. These are calculations much more favorable for the PSOE than the published polls, so they should be read for what they are: party projections.
In any case, according to these internal calculations, the opportunity for the PSOE is for Vox to grow at the expense of the PP: they estimate that around 3% of popular voters could switch to Abascal's party. If it happens, the distance between Feijóo and Sánchez would narrow even if the socialists did not grow, since it would be the PP that would lose strength. That is, the more the votes are distributed between PP and Vox, the more options the PSOE would have to close the gap with the popular party and even surpass them in seats.
The "epic" comeback
In the PSOE they also count on mobilizing their voters through what they call the "epic" of the comeback. Leaders at different levels maintain that a part of the bases trust that Sánchez has chosen the right moment to call. "People are convinced that this is when it was best for them, that they have faith that if they have done it this way it is because it is the best option: the epic accompanies them. People trust that vision and are eager," summarizes a territorial leader.
In 2023, the PSOE went to the general elections after losing the municipal and regional elections. The announcement of the call initially caused a downturn in the game, but during the campaign the expectation of a comeback spread. The PP received the most votes, although Sánchez managed to remain in the Government. Ferraz now seeks to reactivate that memory: to present an adverse situation as the beginning of a campaign that is still open. The epic can help mobilize one's own voters, although it does not erase the advantage that the polls reflect today.
In addition, Sánchez will also count on the activity of the Government. Added to the housing decrees is the start of procedures to raise the minimum wage before the elections. The updating of pensions, for its part, is linked to the legal mechanism of annual revaluation. And this Friday Sánchez added a highly political issue by saying that he does not rule out pardoning former Attorney General Álvaro García Ortiz, sentenced to disqualification. The decision would open a new controversy in the campaign and fuel confrontation with the right. In Moncloa they summarize the objective of all these initiatives in one phrase: "turn around the polls."
The battle for the Senate: province by province
Another way is in the joint lists to the Senate. The PSOE admits to being exploring agreements with progressive forces and is holding talks with different groups. "This has to be done province by province," they point out from the socialist leadership. In the Valencian Community, party sources assure that the possibility is being seriously studied. In Andalusia it has also been tested, although it is considered more complicated; there it could be tried with the Frente Amplio. Bildu and the BNG, for now, are not willing.
The reason for seeking agreements lies in how the majority of senators are elected. In each province four seats are distributed and each voter can vote for three candidates. For this reason, the candidate with the most votes usually wins three seats and the second one, one; the others may be left without representation. If progressive parties present separate lists, they divide their support. A joint candidacy would try to gather those votes in the same candidates and challenge the right-wing list for the three positions that are usually concentrated in the first force. "It is being talked about in many places, although in some it is very complicated," says a territorial leader. Some of the provinces with possibilities for this formula to succeed could be Menorca, Valencia, Castellón, Alicante, Asturias, Cádiz or Mallorca.
The objective is for the PP not to revalidate its absolute majority in the Upper House, which stands at 134 senators. In the last elections it got 142. "The PP would lose it. There would be a Senate very similar to that of 2019," says a socialist senator. The result would be especially important because the renewal of four magistrates of the Constitutional Court is still pending, whose mandates expired in December 2025. The Senate elects these magistrates from candidates proposed by the regional parliaments, but needs a three-fifths majority to do so. Therefore, losing the absolute majority would not automatically give control of the Chamber to the left nor would it allow judges to be appointed without agreement: it would change the numbers and the ability of each bloc to negotiate the renewal.
