Why a victory for Feijóo on 29N can change Von der Leyen's plans

What happens in the general elections on November 29 will have a direct influence on Ursula von der Leyen and the dynamics of her European Commission. The president of the Community Executive is conservative, yes, of the German CDU, but her main supporters in general within the European Council are three: Emmanuel Macron, Pedro Sánchez and even Giorgia Meloni, with whom she also has a good personal relationship. In addition, the Polish Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, can be added there. But surprisingly, a return of the center-right (with or without Vox) to power in Spain could leave Von der Leyen's plans up in the air.

Since 2019, the Spanish Government has been key for the German one, especially due to the role of Pedro Sánchez. Under this alliance, very important at times, for example with the strengthening of the recovery fund for the pandemic or with the energy reform (although distant, for example, on the immigration issue), the centrist bloc in the European Parliament has been able to sustain itself during the German's two terms at the head of the Commission. Von der Leyen's good work not only with Sánchez, but also with Olaf Scholz at the time in Germany or with the social democrat Mette Frederiksen in Denmark has helped the center coalition in the European Parliament to survive despite the significant rise of the radical right.

Now, would a possible PP Executive with Vox change the plans of the president of the Commission? Everything suggests yes, and the sources consulted for 20 minutes are quite clear about it. From the social democratic ranks they understand that an entry of Abascal's men into the Spanish Government would end up pushing them into the opposition to Von der Leyen in the European Parliament, although for some they are already in it. But without making much noise at the moment, they explain: without Sánchez they would lose the most important Government and only Denmark would remain as a social democratic bastion while the approaches of the popular Europeans to the radical right are increasingly relevant, as has already been seen in several votes in the European Parliament (in the so-called 'Venezuela majority' because it debuted by recognizing Edmundo González as the country's legitimate president).

A Feijóo Government with Abascal would move Spain to a different scenario, closer on an ideological level to Meloni's Italy, the Nordics or partners like Austria. There the affinity would be seen not only in the topic par excellence, which is migration, but also when talking about budgets or the external role of the European Union. The board throughout the EU is leaning to the right, and the conservative and radical right parties will want this change to also be seen in the day-to-day life of the European Commission, which is the one that guides, yes - it proposes - but the last word in the EU is in the national governments and in the European Parliament, which act as co-legislators.

And without Sánchez in power, the S&D (the social democrats in the European Parliament) would be left without incentives to support Von der Leyen, as sources confirm. The relationship between the socialists in the European Parliament and the German one is already complicated and they have been pointing fingers at it for months for having blurred the social pillar in its current program or for its role with respect to Israel. From within they recognize that there are fewer and fewer reasons to support this European Commission, but many voices continue to put the red line on a motion of censure: they can withdraw support, but they will not bring down the Community Executive.

Furthermore, the Spanish and Italian socialists are key in this sense: they are the two largest delegations within the family, with 18 MEPs each right now. And in Italy there is interest in the PD to go to the clash at the political level; Right now, for them to be close to Von der Leyen is to also be close to Meloni, especially when it comes to immigration policy, and the country faces elections in a few months with the party led by Elly Schlein still very far from victory. Thus, sources confirm that in Rome the Social Democrats would be working on a few months of confrontation with the European Commission.

New agreements in sight?

Von der Leyen is not close to Sánchez out of personal affinity - which there is also - but above all out of political interest. Being in the orbit of the Spanish president means moving away from Manfred Weber, who was his great rival within the EPP to win the presidency of the Commission in 2019. The current leader of the European conservatives did not jump to the Berlaymont - the main headquarters of the Community Executive - because Macron and Merkel did not want to; In 2024 it also became impossible for him to compete with Von der Leyen. But Weber is one of Feijóo's great supporters in Brussels, with very close figures such as Dolors Montserrat. This sum of 'allies' around Weber does not convince the head of the community Executive either.

Furthermore, Weber is in favor of alliances in the European Parliament being formed towards the right: that is, not with the center coalition with social democrats and liberals, as until now, but with Meloni's group (ECR) and even with the Patriots, where Le Pen and precisely Vox are. But within the EPP there are certain schisms, in fact, maybe even two sides. The CDU itself - Weber is from its sister party, the CSU - does not welcome settling permanently in that 'Venezuela coalition', nor do Tusk's Poles or the Belgian conservatives share it. Now, Weber may find in Feijóo another supporter for his change of plans, especially if he ends up governing with Vox (a sum that the polls are currently consolidating).