Bitcoin falls under pressure from US rates and awaits Trump-Xi summit

Back to earth. Bitcoin is trading around $83,800 this Thursday, September 24 in the early morning (around 2.5% less than yesterday at the same time). On Wednesday, the three movers holding the price at $86,000 looked strong. A single number was enough to seize them.

This figure exceeds 5.1%. This is the peak reached on Wednesday by the yield on US ten-year bonds, and we have to go back to July 2007 to find higher. Bitcoin must still pass two more tests before Friday noon.

Bitcoin against the 10-year rate: gravity takes back its rights

It all starts from a survey of purchasing directors. The S&P Global composite PMI index (the monthly survey that measures business activity) came out on Wednesday at 58.4 for September, its highest level in more than five years. An accelerating American economy fuels inflation. In the process, Fed Governor Michael Barr called for further rate hikes, and the five-year Treasury bond auction found few buyers.

The 10-year rate exceeded 5.1% during the session before closing above 5%. This is its largest increase in one day since April 9, 2025 according to CNBC. The CME's FedWatch tool on Wednesday evening gave about a 73% chance of a rate hike in October, compared to 53% earlier in the day.

Why does bitcoin care? A risk-free Treasury bond that yields 5% per year makes every non-yielding asset a little harder to defend in a portfolio. The sanction fell within an hour. No less than $237 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated when the price broke $84,000. We detailed this episode last night.

Trump-Xi summit: bitcoin suspended at the White House

Second obstacle, and not the least. Xi Jinping, who arrived in Washington on Wednesday, is received this Thursday at the White House for a summit followed by a state dinner. He hadn't set foot there for over ten years. The most urgent file was defused the previous evening. Scott Bessent announced the extension of the Busan trade truce until January 10, instead of November 10. The risk is shifting to rare earths, artificial intelligence and Taiwan.

For bitcoin, the mechanism involves oil and rates. An agreement that reassures global trade would calm inflation expectations and give some breathing space to the bond market. Failure would do the opposite. Yesterday, the barrel of WTI gained another 2%, and expensive oil remains the preferred fuel of the Fed hawks.

However, be wary of readings that are too mechanical. However, bitcoin climbed on Monday September 21 despite the Fed having just raised its rates, driven by almost a billion dollars of entries into ETFs in a single session.

Bitcoin Options: $15.6 Billion Expires Friday

Third meeting, Friday at 10 a.m. (Paris time). Deribit, the leading crypto options platform, will then see approximately 182,000 BTC worth of contracts expire. The notional value reaches nearly $15.6 billion according to CoinDesk, with 106,200 call options versus 75,900 put options.

The figure to watch is called the max pain, set at $76,000. This is the price at which the greatest number of contracts would expire worthless, the one that hurts options buyers the most. Some traders see this as a magnet in the hours leading up to the deadline. The theory remains fragile. This 15.6 billion measures the size of open positions, and the money that will actually change hands will be much more modest.

The day won't end there. Durable goods orders and U.S. consumer sentiment fall in the afternoon, Paris time.