Coal is resisting and its consumption risks reaching a record in 2026
According to the IEA, global coal demand could increase by 1.2% in 2026 due to geopolitical tensions and the cost of gas.
Quick Look
- Global coal consumption is likely to reach a new record in 2026 with an increase of 1.2%, according to the IEA.
- This trend is fueled by the war in the Middle East, the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and the surge in natural gas prices.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The IEA initially predicted a decline in coal by 2030, but geopolitical crises are changing consumption trajectories.
Coal is resisting. Its consumption is likely to reach a new record in 2026, according to forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Global demand is likely to increase by 1.2%, to reach 8.94 billion tonnes, according to an agency report published Thursday September 10. At issue: the war in the Middle East, the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and fears about the security of supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG). “Even though no coal shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the disruption has nevertheless had repercussions on the markets for this energy. The blockage and fall in LNG deliveries through the strait have pushed up natural gas prices,” writes the IEA.
If the use of coal, the most polluting fossil energy, had already broken records in 2024 and 2025, the IEA predicted, at the end of 2025, "a slight drop in demand in 2026 and a slow continued decline until 2030", recalls the economic newspaper Les Echos.
In November 2025, in its annual World Energy Outlook report, the IEA expected that renewable energy, driven by solar photovoltaics, would see demand grow “faster than any other major energy source, in all scenarios”.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Reaching a new record for coal consumption in 2026
Likely · Within months
Open Questions
- How long will the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz last?
- What long-term impact on climate objectives?
