Heating this winter: reassuring gas stocks, but soaring bills to be feared

Should we fear a sudden shutdown of heating this winter? The disaster scenario seems excluded, reassures the president of the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE), Emmanuelle Wargon. At the microphone of RMC this Wednesday morning, she returned to the level of French stocks, judging “the figures relatively reassuring”. For now, the occupancy rate has reached 71%. The objective is to pass the 85% threshold as we enter the cold season. “I am quite confident that we will get there,” added the president of the CRE.

If the risk of cuts recedes, the risk of a spike in the bill for the consumer, on the other hand, remains very present. Renewed tensions in the Middle East have pushed Dutch TTF futures, the European benchmark, to their highest level in more than three years. It reached 74.14 euros per megawatt hour compared to around 30 euros before the start of hostilities in the Middle East. “We are completely dependent on international markets,” admitted Emmanuelle Wargon. Another negative factor, Europe is preparing for the gradual exit of Russian LNG from January 1, 2027. As a result, competition for access to remaining sources of supply is intensifying.

Gas prices up 5.6%

A first step was taken on September 1st. The benchmark sales price for gas increased by 5.6%, from 162.89 euros to 172.05 euros including tax per megawatt hour (MWh). Some 6 million households having subscribed to an offer indexed to this average price, which varies each month, are affected. How high could the bill soar? The President of the Commission did not want to give a figure.

Good news nevertheless, unlike the 2022 crisis, electricity prices should experience more limited progression. Four years ago, France simultaneously had to face a jump in gas prices, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but also major availability problems at its nuclear power plants. As a result, Paris had massively imported electricity at a time when it was particularly expensive to produce in its neighbors. “Today, we have good availability of our power plants,” pointed out Emmanuelle Wargon. If it does not exclude a slight increase in prices, this will be “less than in the rest of Europe”.